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#1 2017-03-02 20:14:58

racecaller
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Join Date: 2007-07-05
Posts: 8231

ULTIMA HANDICAP CHASE TRENDS 2017

The Ultima Business Solutions Festival Trophy Handicap Chase (formerly the William Hill Trophy) is a grade 3 handicap chase run over 3 miles and half a furlong. It’s the third race run on the opening day of the Festival and there are plenty of important trends that should be taken note of before having a bet in this race.

 

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

 

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

6yo: 0-3-14

7yo: 3-11-43

8yo: 4-1-50

9yo: 1-10-50

10yo: 2-2-30

11yo+: 0-2-27

10 of 10 winners were aged 7 to 10 and they have also filled 34 of 39 places

Horses aged 6 to 8: 7-15-107

Horses aged 9 or older: 3-14-107

Horses aged 11+ should be avoided seeing as they have filled 2 places from 27 runners in the past 10 renewals.

 

Breeding

Irish bred: 9-11-126

British bred: 1-9-38

French bred: 0-8-41

Other: 0-1-9

Irish bred horses have won 9 of last 10 from approximately 58.9% of total runners.

 

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)

Horses carrying 11-5 or more: 2-6-47

Horses carrying 10-9 to 11-4: 5-17-99

Horses carrying 10-8 or lower: 3-6-68

Only 4 horses have managed to carry 11-0+ to victory since 2000, 3 of those 4 had finished 1st or 2nd in a 3M+ grade 1 hurdle and the other was 6th in a previous Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle.

Top Weight: P0787597PF702 (0-1-13)

 

Official Ratings

Horses rated 140 or higher: 7-20-128

Horses rated 130 to 139: 2-9-76

Horses rated 129 or below: 1-0-10

7 of last 9 winners were officially rated 140 to 149, they also accounted for 22 of 34 places in last 9 years.

 

Recent/Past Form

7 of 10 winners had posted an RPR of 142+ on last chase start

8 of 10 winners were 1st or 2nd season chasers (both exceptions were 3rd season chasers)

9 of 10 winners had gained 1 to 3 previous wins over fences (exception yet to win from 3 chase runs)

8 of 10 winners had won a class 3 or better chase (2 exceptions were novice chasers that had finished 2nd in a grade 1 3M Hurdle)

10 of 10 winners had won over 3M+

9 of 10 winners had run in 9 or fewer handicap chases

10 of 10 winners had won no more than 2 handicap chases

9 of 10 winners had won or placed in a hurdle or chase worth 28K+

10 of 10 winners had run in a class 2 or graded race over 2M 5F+ at Cheltenham

 

Other Races

Previous year's winner (Un Temps Pour Tout): F0 (0-0-2)

Genius by Bet Bright Cheltenham Festival Fund Veterans' Handicap Chase winner (Killala Quay): 17 (1-0-2)

32Red.com Handicap Chase winner (Double Shuffle): 22 (0-2-2)

Unicoin Group Handicap Chase winner (Theatre Guide): P2 (0-1-2)

BetBright Chase winner (Pilgrims Bay): PF (0-0-2)

Record of horses that won or placed in Skybet Chase: 412 (1-2-3)

3 of 10 winners ran in that season's Cleeve Hurdle, finishing 055

2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Liverpool Hurdle, finishing 23

2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Stayers' Hurdle, finishing 96

2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's World Series Hurdle, finishing 24

2 of 10 winners ran in the United House Gold Cup, finishing 7P

2 of last 4 novice winners were placed in a 3M Exeter Novices' Chase in November

 

Trainers

Jonjo O’Neill (3-0-11) has saddled 3 winners (2009, 2012 & 2014) in past 10 years and also trained runner-up in 2016.

David Pipe (2-3-15) trained the winners in 2008 & 2016 and has also saddled The Package to be placed in 3 of last 7 runnings.

Alan King (1-1-9) trained the winner in 2004 & 2011

Neil Mulholland (1-1-4) trained the winner in 2015 & 3rd in 2016.

Colin Tizzard (1-0-6) trained the winner in 2013.

Nicky Henderson (0-3-11) last trained the winner in 2000 and has seen 5 of his last 13 runners get placed.

Donald McCain (0-2-2) trained Our Mick to be placed in 2012 & 2013.

Henry De Bromhead (0-1-2), Ian Williams (0-1-3) & Philip Hobbs (0-1-7) have all saddled 1 placed finisher in past 10 years.

Tony Martin (0-1-4) trained the winner in 2006 and 3rd in 2015, both had won/placed in Thyestes on previous start.

Paul Nicholls (0-1-10), Venetia Williams (0-1-14), Nigel Twiston-Davies (0-0-16) have managed just 2 places from their collective 40 runners since 2007.

There had been no Irish trained (0-5-17) winner for 38 years before Youlneverwalkalone won it in 2003. Dun Doire then managed to repeat the feat in 2006, though there has been no Irish winner in last 10 years. Last 2 Irish winners had finished in first 3 in a handicap chase in Britain earlier that season.

 

Price

No strong trend on price, as 6 of 10 winners were priced between 5/1 and 10/1 but there has been 3 big shocks in the last 10 years, with a 50/1 winner in 2007, a 33/1 in 2010 & a 28/1 in 2013.

Favourites (1-5-13) have a poor record in the race having won just 1 of the last 10, giving a level stakes loss of 4.00.

 

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

Aged 7 to 10 (ideally 7 or 8)

Irish bred

Carrying 10-13 or less (or previously placed in a grade 1 hurdle over 3M)

Officially rated 140 to 149

Posted an RPR of 142+ last time

Won over 3M+

First or second season chaser

Won 1 to 3 times over fences

Has run in 9 or fewer handicap chases (won no more than 2)

Won a class 3 or better handicap chase

Won or placed in a NH race worth 39K+

Finished in first 6 in 2016 World Series, Stayers, Liverpool Hurdle and/or 2017 Cleeve Hurdle

Trained by Jonjo O’Neill, Alan King, Tony Martin, Neil Mulholland or David Pipe 

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#2 2017-03-02 20:17:42

pk75
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Join Date: 2010-02-01
Posts: 25399

Re: ULTIMA HANDICAP CHASE TRENDS 2017

Hopefully when Rc opens a thread for this race they can move this post over.


Holywell   Jonjo is a trainer that seems to target big spring handicaps, and little else.  Holywell has run some awful races over the years given his undoubted talent.. But when isolating his Cheltenham Festival form alone, its hard to deny that he must be a big player in this race..


Last 4 years Holywell @ Cheltenham Festival


2013      1st/24 in the Pertemps Hurdle winning cozily off a mark of 140


2014      1st/23  in the Ultima Chase   winning cozily off a mark of 145


2015      4th/16  in the GOLD CUP  beaten 9L by Coneygree/Djackadam/Road To Riches...With likes of the great Many Clouds and Silviniaco Conti/Smad Place & Carlingford Lough miles behind..   (official mark 163)


2016      2nd/23   in the Ultima Chase   travelled much the best, before succumbing to a very well treated animal in Un Temps Pour Tout off a mark of 153


2017??     Ultima Chase    will race off mark of 148..   


Still only a 10 year old... 14/1 NRNB..  Looks well worth an EW

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#3 2017-03-05 23:28:29

folski
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Join Date: 2012-02-25
Posts: 652

Re: ULTIMA HANDICAP CHASE TRENDS 2017

Henri Parry Morgan off 142, dropped 6lb for 2 schooling sessions one over hurdles and one over fences after a wind op. Bowen said he thinks he would have won both races he unseated and fell in this year as he was absolutely tanking at the time. Op was due to his jumping deteriorating at latter stages as it was perfect in early stage, Bowen's words not mine. He has even had the spin over hurdles a la Druids Nephew, Alfie Sherrin, Bensalem and finished 3L behind the Gold Cup favourite last year in a grade 1. 


20/1

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#4 2017-03-05 23:35:04

folski
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Join Date: 2012-02-25
Posts: 652

Re: ULTIMA HANDICAP CHASE TRENDS 2017

pk75 wrote:


Hopefully when Rc opens a thread for this race they can move this post over.


Holywell   Jonjo is a trainer that seems to target big spring handicaps, and little else.  Holywell has run some awful races over the years given his undoubted talent.. But when isolating his Cheltenham Festival form alone, its hard to deny that he must be a big player in this race..


Last 4 years Holywell @ Cheltenham Festival


2013      1st/24 in the Pertemps Hurdle winning cozily off a mark of 140


2014      1st/23  in the Ultima Chase   winning cozily off a mark of 145


2015      4th/16  in the GOLD CUP  beaten 9L by Coneygree/Djackadam/Road To Riches...With likes of the great Many Clouds and Silviniaco Conti/Smad Place & Carlingford Lough miles behind..   (official mark 163)


2016      2nd/23   in the Ultima Chase   travelled much the best, before succumbing to a very well treated animal in Un Temps Pour Tout off a mark of 153


2017??     Ultima Chase    will race off mark of 148..   


Still only a 10 year old... 14/1 NRNB..  Looks well worth an EW


Horse was favourite for the Gold Cup at one stage PK and I backed him last year however I think the horses form last year was substantially better than this years and it only results in a 5lb drop. No shame in running 25 odd lengths behind Cue Card who was a revelation in the early part of last season on ground that didn't suit the horse, but running 69L behind Native River and 73L behind Ziga Boy with the horse struggling early in both races indicates he is struggling. Shame the ground didn't come up good the year Coneygree won the Gold Cup or it might have been Holywells.

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#5 2017-03-10 13:54:01

keitho16
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Join Date: 2016-06-30
Posts: 204

Re: ULTIMA HANDICAP CHASE TRENDS 2017

pk75 wrote:


Hopefully when Rc opens a thread for this race they can move this post over.


Holywell   Jonjo is a trainer that seems to target big spring handicaps, and little else.  Holywell has run some awful races over the years given his undoubted talent.. But when isolating his Cheltenham Festival form alone, its hard to deny that he must be a big player in this race..


Last 4 years Holywell @ Cheltenham Festival


2013      1st/24 in the Pertemps Hurdle winning cozily off a mark of 140


2014      1st/23  in the Ultima Chase   winning cozily off a mark of 145


2015      4th/16  in the GOLD CUP  beaten 9L by Coneygree/Djackadam/Road To Riches...With likes of the great Many Clouds and Silviniaco Conti/Smad Place & Carlingford Lough miles behind..   (official mark 163)


2016      2nd/23   in the Ultima Chase   travelled much the best, before succumbing to a very well treated animal in Un Temps Pour Tout off a mark of 153


2017??     Ultima Chase    will race off mark of 148..   


Still only a 10 year old... 14/1 NRNB..  Looks well worth an EW
His record at the festival is really impressive and seems to come alive this time of year. his form this season has been dreadful and you are just hoping they can get him right for the day 

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#6 2017-03-10 23:31:52

stu3105
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Join Date: 2013-03-25
Posts: 1597

Re: ULTIMA HANDICAP CHASE TRENDS 2017

0 Can't believe they have pulled the Winner out0  That would of been Our Kaempfer  Who came out best on all known Trends and had previously ran well at Cheltenham 3 times before, well gutted!!!

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#7 2017-03-11 01:54:11

baazzaa
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Join Date: 2010-06-10
Posts: 1473

Re: ULTIMA HANDICAP CHASE TRENDS 2017

Im looking at the top of the weights group, Im not sure about a horse winning it twice so ill stay away from them, so far im thinking, Noble Endevour, Likes Chelts, 2nd a couple of years ago in a hurdle race at Fest. Get going when falling 2 out in 4 miler and good form behind empire of dirt this year.


OO Seven is the other one I like, good looking horse, loves a fence, I was expecting a bit more from this horse this year, Although I blame the trainer for stepping him up to 3 miles t in a horrible looking race., Tinkler was poor on him as well. I still think he could be progressing this horse. He wants a bit of Juice, but hes got solid hurdle form. Im not sure wether 3 miles or two and a half is best for him.  Id think Nico is suited to this horse to. Plus he looks like a horse you can handle weight on his back.

Last edited by baazzaa (2017-03-11 01:57:39)

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#8 2017-03-14 06:58:10

greatpilsudski
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Join Date: 2012-10-29
Posts: 934

Re: ULTIMA HANDICAP CHASE TRENDS 2017

the 3 novices ldo ,singlefarm payement and ibis de rhea seem to slot into that nice 142 to 148 bracket.


label des obeaux out the 3 seems to me ,as a alan king novice chaser is worth a extra look but my gut feeling tells me big fields and/or cheltenham may be a issue for him and not keen


idr nicholls very poor record in this but he is a festival winner but aint sure about him.


.sfp though seems to relish big fields,never out of the first 2 over hurdles in 15 runenr+ fields.greta chance i think and most likely winner.


holywell loves it here and you have to think hes going to come alive today with it being a warm day and decent ground.  nobel endeavour may just find that big weight too much but i expect a big run from him


measurefomydream interesting outsider i think.

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#9 2017-03-14 09:54:40

colligsulli14
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Join Date: 2012-04-23
Posts: 677

Re: ULTIMA HANDICAP CHASE TRENDS 2017

Can anyone put me off Pilgrims Bay? Meets all the trends and a likely improver???

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#10 2017-03-14 13:14:22

jocser
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Join Date: 2008-09-15
Posts: 745

Re: ULTIMA HANDICAP CHASE TRENDS 2017

Not me, like it too.

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