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#1 2017-03-12 01:13:20

racecaller
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Join Date: 2007-07-05
Posts: 8425

PERTEMPS NETWORK FINAL HANDICAP HURDLE TRENDS 2017

The second race on day 3 is the Pertemps Network Final, which is a listed handicap hurdle run over 3 miles. Horses not quite thought good enough for the World Hurdle often take their place in this. It has thrown up a few shocks since 2004 (including two 50/1 winners). Generally this is won by either a less exposed type or a horse that won or placed in last year’s renewal.

 

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings:

 

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

5yo: 0-3-16

6yo: 3-6-51

7yo: 1-8-64

8yo: 4-8-50

9yo: 1-2-23

10yo: 1-1-16

11yo+: 0-2-15

Horses aged 5 to 7: 4-17-131

Horses aged 8 to 10: 6-11-89

The only horse aged 10+ to win this was Buena Vista in 2011 after he had won the race in 2010 and finished 2nd in 2009.

 

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)

Horses carrying 10-10 or more: 5-14-119

Horses carrying 10-9 or less: 5-16-116

Between 2005 & 2011, 6 of 7 winners carried 10-9 or less, however in the past 5 years, all 5 winners have carried 10-11 or more and 19 of 20 places have been filled by horses carrying 10-9 or more.   

Top Weight: 908040P0144 (1-3-11)

 

Official Ratings

Horses rated 143 to 160: 1-10-54

Horses rated 129 to 142: 9-20-174

Horses rated 128 or lower: 0-0-7

In the past 6 years, all 6 winners and 21 of 24 places were filled by horses rated 135 to 148.

 

Recent/Past Form

10 of 10 winners had their last run in January or February

9 of 10 winners had run 2 to 7 times that season (exception won only start that season)

8 of 10 winners had previously run in 6 to 10 hurdles races (2 exceptions finished in first 2 in previous year's race)

10 of 10 winners had won 1 to 5 hurdles races

8 of 10 winner had run in 1 to 4 handicap hurdles (2 exceptions finished in first 2 in previous Pertemps)

10 of 10 winners had won no more than 2 handicap hurdles

7 of 10 winners had won a Class 3 or higher hurdle (2 exceptions 2nd in a graded hurdle)

6 of 10 winners had finished in first 3 in a graded hurdle

8 of 10 winners had won over 2M 7F+ (2 exceptions had finished 2nd over 3M+)

9 of 10 winners made their racecourse debut in a NH race 

2 of 10 winners had previously won at Cheltenham (4 others having first course start)  

 

Other races

Record of first 5 from Betfair. Don't Settle For Less "Fixed Brush" Handicap Hurdle: 10P11000 (3-0-8)

Record of horses that finished in top 6 in previous Pertemps: 0025101P005000 (2-1-14)

Record of horses that finished that finished in first 4 in Leopardstown Pertemps Q'fier: 3P089232801 (1-4-11)

Exeter Pertemps Qualifier winner (Impulsive Star): 17 (1-0-2)

Haydock Pertemps Qualifier winner (Dadsintrouble): 01F00 (1-0-5)

Leopardstown Pertemps Qualifier winner (Electric Concorde): 3082 (0-2-4)

Warwick Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle winner (Tobefair): 3 (0-1-1)

Pertemps Network Group Handicap Hurdle winner (Gayebury): 2 (0-1-1) 

Wincanton Pertemps Qualifier winner (Mr Mix): 003 (0-1-3)

Betfair Cash Out Handicap Hurdle winner (Tobefair): 00 (0-0-2) 

Aintree Pertemps Handicap Hurdle winner (Caid Du Berlais): 67 (0-0-2) 

Punchestown Pertemps Qualifier winner (Isleofhopeanddreams): 56 (0-0-2)

Warwick Pertemps Qualifier winner (Solumn Grundy): 00P6080 (0-0-7)

3 of 10 winners (3 of last 7) ran in Betfair Don't Settle For Less Fixed Brush H'cap Hurdle, finishing 552

2 of 10 winners ran in previous Pertemps H'cap Hurdle, finishing 21

Last 3 Irish-trained winners ran in the Leopardstown Pertemps Qualifier, both finishing 11th-11th-4th

2 of last 3 Irish-trained winners ran in Punchestown Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle, finishing 35

2 of 10 winners ran in the Citipost H'cap Hurdle here in December, finishing 07

2 of 10 winners ran in the Heroes Handicap Hurdle, finishing 07

2 of 10 winners ran in Haydock Pertemps Qualifier last time, finishing 14

 

Racing Tactics

7 of 10 winners led or raced prominently

Three others were settled in midfield.

 

Trainers

Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-1-11), Paul Hobbs (1-1-14) & Jonjo O’Neill (1-1-18) have all saddled a winner & placed finisher in past 10 years.

Alan King (0-3-7) has seen 3 of his 5 runners since 2009 get placed.

Paul Nicholls (0-3-10) trained the runner-up in 2014 & 2016.

Willie Mullins (0-2-3) has bagged 2 places from 3 runners in this.  

Irish trained runners (1-7-46) have won just 1 of the last 10. The last 3 Irish-trained winners had run in Leopardstown Pertemps Qualifier. Prior to Mall Dini’s win in 2016, the previous Irish winner was in 2006.

 

Price

No massively significant trend with regard to prices though 8 of 10 winners went off between 14/1 & 25/1.

Beware of backing a horse at single-figure odds in this, as in the past 10 years only 6 of the 35 runners priced shorter than 10/1 have made the places, though 2 of last 3 winners were sent off 9/2 & 9/1.

Favourites (1-1-11) have won just 1 of the last 10 runnings, giving a level stakes loss of 4.50.

 

Summary: 

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

Aged 6 to 8

Officially rated 135 to 148

Had last run in January or February

Run 2 to 7 times this season

Won a class 3 or higher hurdle (or placed in a graded hurdle)

Run 6 to 10 times over hurdles (winning 1 to 5)

Run in 2 to 4 handicap hurdles (or finished in first 2 in this race in 2016)

Won no more than 2 handicap hurdles

Won over 2M 7F+

NH bred 

Finished in first 5 in Betfair Fixed Brush H’cap Hurdle and/or Pertemps Qualifier at Haydock

Irish-trained that finished in first 5 in Leopardstown or Punchestown Pertemps Qualifier

Trained by Alan King, Philip Hobbs, Paul Nicholls or Willie Mullins

Tends to race prominently  

 

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#2 2017-03-15 21:50:37

stu3105
Forum Pro
Join Date: 2013-03-25
Posts: 1614

Re: PERTEMPS NETWORK FINAL HANDICAP HURDLE TRENDS 2017

Very Tricky Puzzle to dsolve as usual and given the past 2 Days that iv'e had a Ultra competitive Handicap such as this is probably the last thing I really need, But however I really need a Nice Winner at a Decent Price and whether I like it or not this is the most likely Race to give me just that so i'm fully prepared to give this Race a good going over which I have now done so here come my Selections, Based on what I have Read 6 and 8 year holds are very much the ones to concentrate on here and last 10 from 10 Winners had last Run in either January or February this Year so after having looked into that and taking all other Trends into account there are 2 Standout Horses that I have been left with and they are Rocklander and Sutton Manor who can both be Backed around the 16/1-20/1 Mark and like I've already pointed out both fit in very well based on all known information that has been given on the Race, Rocklander is Trained by Tom George who Trains nearby Cheltenham and does very well with what horses he has, he went close with Singlefarmpayment on the opening Day when beaten right on the nod and did manage to sneak a Place today with Sir Valentino in the Champion Chase at 33/1 so he clearly has his team in good order and has been enjoying a very good season in association with his new Stable Jockey Adrian Heskin riding plenty of Winners for him and I personally already had this Pair in mind to Bag a Festival Winner in there first Season joining forces, judging by Rocklander's Form he very much looks to have the ideal profile for this race, So too though does my 2nd Selection who is Trained by the very much inform Gordon Elliott who has 4 Winners already to his name 1 of them being Tiger Roll who was Ridden by Miss Lisa O'neil who appears to be a very talented and Valuable Rider taking a very Handy 5lb off there backs, She will be aboard Sutton Manor Tomorrow and already knows the Horse well when Winning on him last timeout in Ireland, He fits all the key trends too 1 of them being that all Irish Winners of this Contest had all recorded a top 5 finish in either 1 of the Leopardstown or Punchestown Pertemps Qualifiers in which this fella did manage to when Finishing 2 in the Leopardstown Qualifier, He's in Grand Form at present which comes at no surprise given his Connections and I'm really sweet on this ones chance not just because who Trains him but because I like his overall Form and he also very much fits the right profile for this.  Best Of Luck All!!

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