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#1 2017-02-22 23:12:53

racecaller
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Join Date: 2007-07-05
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ALBERT BARTLETT NOVICES' HURDLE TRENDS 2017

The Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle, which is run over 3 miles, was first run as a grade 2 in 2005 but was elevated to grade 1 status in 2008. There will be many horses that will hold entries in this as well as the Neptune Novices’ Hurdle and so the picture for this race will become clearer once the declarations for the Neptune come out.

 

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings:

 

Age

5yo: 1-5-38

6yo: 5-9-84

7yo: 3-3-41

8yo+: 1-3-16

9yo: 0-0-2

8 of 10 winners were aged 6 or 7, though that age group represented 69% of the total runners, so not surprising. The two previous 5yo winners of this were both French bred.

 

Gender

Mares (0-1-5) have gained 1 place from their 5 runners, all of whom were priced 12/1 or above.

 

Breeding

Irish bred: 7-15-120

French bred: 2-2-30

British bred: 1-2-28

German bred: 0-1-3

Irish bred have won 7 of 10 however they have represented 66.3% of total runners whereas French bred horses have a proportionally better record, winning 2 of 10 from 16.6% of total runners.

King's Theatre progeny: 10P612F8 (2-1-8) - one other winner out of a King's Theatre mare

Milan progeny: 21 (1-1-2)

Oscar progeny: 60P8412 (1-1-7)

Presenting progeny: 970013P (1-1-7)

Martaline progeny: 010 (1-0-3)

 

Recent/Past Form

8 of 10 winners finished in the first 2 last time (1 exception was 4th in the grade 2 Boyne Hurdle against seasoned hurdlers & other was 3rd in a grade 2 Slaney novice hurdle)

10 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR in last 2 starts

8 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 145+ last time (2 exceptions posted career high RPR of 139)

8 of 10 winners had run 3 to 6 times over hurdles (2 exceptions ran in 14)

8 of 10 winners had won a graded hurdle (2 exceptions finished in first 3 in a grade 2)

10 of 10 winners had won over 2M 4F+

10 of 10 winners had not run on the flat

7 of 10 winners had won a bumper (1 exception was 2nd in a bumper on debut and other 2 made racecourse debut in a hurdles race)

5 of 6 British-trained winners had won at Cheltenham (1 exception was having first course start)

4 of 4 Irish-trained winners had won a hurdles race at Galway or Limerick

 

Other Races

Classic Novice Hurdle winner (Wholestone): 1F11 (3-0-4)

Bristol Novice Hurdle winner (Wholestone: 41P2FP1 (2-1-7)

Dorans Pride Novice Hurdle winner (Penhill): 1PU1 (2-0-4)

Paddy Power Acca Insurance EBF Novice Hurdle winner (Blood Crazed Tiger): 2P8U1 (1-1-5)

Prestige Novice Hurdle winner (The Worlds End): 81 (1-0-2)

Nathaniel Lacy & Partners Solicitors Novice Hurdle winner (Let's Dance): 22 (0-2-2)

Leamington Novice Hurdle winner (Willoughby Court): 832 (0-2-3)

Navan Novice Hurdle winner (Death Duty): P2F3 (0-2-4)

I.N.H. Stallion Owners EBF Maiden Hurdle winner (Monalee): 3 (0-1-1)

Surehaul Mercedes-Benz Novice Hurdle winner (Monalee): 3 (0-1-1)

Download The Coral Mobile App Maiden Hurdle winner (The Worlds End): 42 (0-1-2) 

Wrights Of Campden Maiden Hurdle winner (Willoughby Court): P4 (0-0-2) 

Eventsec Maiden Hurdle winner (Monbeg Notorious): 94 (0-0-2)

Monksfield Novice Hurdle winner (Death Duty): P7 (0-0-2)

W.T. O'Grady Memorial EBF Novice Hurdle winner (The Storyteller): 478 (0-0-3)

Lawlor's Hotel Slaney Novice Hurdle winner (Death Duty): PF0 (0-0-3)

Hyde Novice Hurdle winner (Peregrine Run): P4P (0-0-3)

Kerry Group Stayers Novice Hurdle winner (Rathnure Rebel): 06P77 (0-0-5)

River Don Novice Hurdle winner (Constantine Bay): 8587P4 (0-0-6)

3 of 10 winners ran in the Hyde Novice Hurdle, finishing 223 (none of last 6)

3 of 6 British-trained winners ran in the Classic Novice Hurdle, finishing 111

2 of 6 British-trained winners ran in the Bristol Novice Hurdle, finishing 11

2 of 4 Irish-trained winners ran in Nathaniel Lacy & Partners Solicitors Novice Hurdle, finishing 22

 

Trainers

Nicky Henderson (1-1-7) trained the first 2 home in 2011 while Alan King (1-1-7) has also gained a win and a place from his runners in this.

Harry Fry (1-0-2), Noel Meade (1-0-5) & Rebecca Curtis (1-0-8) have each trained the winner in past 4 years.

Willie Mullins (0-4-27) has had filled a place in 4 of last 8 renewals, although 3 of last 4 favourites to be beaten in this race came from the Mullins yard and all 7 of his runners in 2016 were unplaced.

Paul Nicholls (0-3-9) has filled 3 places from 9 runners.

Gordon Elliot (0-2-3) saddled No More Heroes to finish an unlucky 3rd in 2015 and Fagan to be 33/1 second in 2016.

David Pipe (0-1-5), Colin Tizzard (0-1-6) and Nigel Twiston-Davies (0-1-7) have all saddled a placed finisher in one of the last 6 runnings.

Irish trained horses (4-8-55) have won 4 of last 10 from approximately 30.3% of total runners. They have been responsible for 2nd in 2016, first 4 home in 2015 and the 1st & 3rd in 2014.

 

Price

No strong trend on prices, with 6 winners going off at 9/1 or shorter, however 4 of last 7 winners were sent off at 33/1, 33/1, 14/1 & 11/1.

Favourites (3-2-10) have won 3 of the 10 runnings but show a level stakes loss of 2.37.

 

Summary:

Based on the trends from the 10 previous runnings you are looking for a horse:

Aged 6 or 7 (or a 5yo French bred)

Irish or French bred

Ideally sired by King's Theatre, Oscar or Milan

Finished in first 2 last time out

Posted an RPR of 145+ last time

Has had 3 to 6 runs over hurdles

Has won a graded hurdle

Won over 2M 4F+

Finished in first 3 in Hyde Novice Hurdle

Finished in first 2 in Bristol, Classic and/or Nathaniel Lacy & Partners Solicitors Novice Hurdle

Had not run under flat rules (ideally has won a bumper)

Course winner (or trained in Ireland)

Trained in Ireland & won a hurdle at Limerick or Galway 

Treat Willie Mullins runners with caution 

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#2 2017-03-17 09:02:16

keano
Forum Pro
Join Date: 2008-03-27
Posts: 4334

Re: ALBERT BARTLETT NOVICES' HURDLE TRENDS 2017

Anyone give Tommy Rapper a chance at 33s, was beaten less than a length by Willoughby Court (Neptune winner) on second last run, 3rd last time, in a race in which Messire Des Obeaux was 2nd. Yet to prove he gets 3 miles but form is working out and Skelton is a top trainer

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