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#1 2017-07-17 15:37:59

certainty
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Prix De L' Arc De Triomphe 2017

Only about four months (!) till the Arc so thought I'd open a thread which people can add to as race gets closer.

Minding's retirement takes one major contender out of the picture and we've yet to see the brilliant Almanzor yet this season but he's still 6/1 ante post favourite. If he comes back as good or better than last year then he would take all the beating in my opinion although his trainer JC Rouget also has French Derby and 2000 Guineas winner Brametot who is 8/1 in the betting. The form of those two races doesn't look anything special but he won them both with a very late run so it's hard to say how much he had in hand, maybe plenty. If he does go for the Arc he could need a good draw and luck in running.

I would put a line through any of the UK and Irish 3yo colts, none of whom look good enough, and the best British 3yo hope must be Enable who is now 2nd fave at 8/1. She's looked very good without beating much and her rating is still well below that achieved by recent 3yo fillies who've won the Arc and I'd like to see her against the boys and/or older horse before getting carried away.

Unfortunately I don't know anything about the Japanese runners other than their trainers would love to win the race but haven't done so yet which would put me off. Satono Diamond is best priced of theirs at 14/1

Highland Reel
(14/1) was second in the race last and looked better than ever this season but not sure many runners up from the Arc have come back to win and another place looks more likely if he takes his chances.

At the ante post prices the one I think could be worth a punt at 33/1 is O'Brien's Seventh Heaven. She's a dual Group 1 winner including a defeat of Found and has started her 4yo season in good style with a second to Jack Hobbs in Dubai and an easy Group 2 win at Newmarket. With Minding retired they might be looking after her for the Arc and though she wouldn't win a high quality version she's good enough to be competitive in an average renewal, as Found was last year.

Thoughts ?

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#2 2017-07-17 18:04:30

greatpilsudski
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Re: Prix De L' Arc De Triomphe 2017

found i think was the first horse for a long time to win after running in it and not winning it the previous season.


the horse who beat highland reel in hing kong apperently isnt being aimed at it that would be the other satono crown 


im thinking the fillies will keep up there recent good record with 6 wins from the last 9.


im ruling out 3yo colts so either fillies or older horses for me.id be inclined to think enable or if it was soft jack hobbs


there was also a good stat that was boken last year but a group 1 win that season by at least 2l is quite common and both these 2 have done this.

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#3 2017-07-17 20:09:34

certainty
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Re: Prix De L' Arc De Triomphe 2017

greatpilsudski wrote:


found i think was the first horse for a long time to win after running in it and not winning it the previous season.


the horse who beat highland reel in hing kong apperently isnt being aimed at it that would be the other satono crown 


im thinking the fillies will keep up there recent good record with 6 wins from the last 9.


im ruling out 3yo colts so either fillies or older horses for me.id be inclined to think enable or if it was soft jack hobbs


there was also a good stat that was boken last year but a group 1 win that season by at least 2l is quite common and both these 2 have done this.
Forgot Jack Hobbs, he is 20/1 which to me looks a better price than his 10/1 for the King George where ground is much more likely to be fast. Not many 5yos have won the Arc in recent decades but it does seem better horses are staying in training longer these days so maybe that trend is not so strong as it used to be ?


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#4 2017-07-18 10:21:13

robbie14
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Re: Prix De L' Arc De Triomphe 2017

A few really good suggestions above and plenty of each way value in the race at this stage I think considering there is a few horses there at the front end of the market which we dont know are going to run. I would personally like to think that Brametot is definitely going for the race and he would be my selection. His form is rock solid beating Le Brevido at Deauville in May who then went onto beat the group 2 class of milers in England and Ireland in the Jersey stakes, hes got pace yet hes won the French Derby over a mile and a quarter. I think that he will be dropped out and come with a late run to finish strongly. I think he will just have too much speed for the likes of Enable 



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#5 2017-07-30 09:14:43

certainty
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Re: Prix De L' Arc De Triomphe 2017

Well, Enable's brilliant performance has seen her cut to as short as 7/4 for the Arc. Almanzor now 7/1 which could look big if he makes a successful return. I took some 6/1 on Enable last week and will have some of that 7/1, if they both turn up it's hard to see anything else winning.

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#6 2017-07-30 11:57:45

little rossi
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Re: Prix De L' Arc De Triomphe 2017

certainty wrote:


Well, Enable's brilliant performance has seen her cut to as short as 7/4 for the Arc. Almanzor now 7/1 which could look big if he makes a successful return. I took some 6/1 on Enable last week and will have some of that 7/1, if they both turn up it's hard to see anything else winning.



Nice touch certainty, be very surprised if your not collecting winnings though i think Frankie rode So Mi Dar in The Arc last year and gave the horse a shocking ride let's hope doesn't repeat that with the superb Enable.

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#7 2017-07-30 12:33:22

certainty
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Re: Prix De L' Arc De Triomphe 2017

little rossi wrote:


certainty wrote:


Well, Enable's brilliant performance has seen her cut to as short as 7/4 for the Arc. Almanzor now 7/1 which could look big if he makes a successful return. I took some 6/1 on Enable last week and will have some of that 7/1, if they both turn up it's hard to see anything else winning.




Nice touch certainty, be very surprised if your not collecting winnings though i think Frankie rode So Mi Dar in The Arc last year and gave the horse a shocking ride let's hope doesn't repeat that with the superb Enable.
Thanks Rossi, will be interesting to see if Shutter Speed runs at Goodwood and how she goes, of course she beat Enable earlier this season and has same owners.

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#8 2017-08-15 15:31:47

greatpilsudski
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Re: Prix De L' Arc De Triomphe 2017

poor seaosnal debut from almanzor,wasnt even running on,out to 20s whilst enable is shortened

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#9 2017-08-15 16:00:46

greatpilsudski
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Re: Prix De L' Arc De Triomphe 2017

enable shortened twice in 45 mins as apparently her main opposition floundered ,obviously neither almanzor or brametot have ran anywhere near to form and both have another chance to redeem on arc trials day i suppose but gosden and her followers must be pretty happy with todays results in france.

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#10 2017-08-15 18:21:10

certainty
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Re: Prix De L' Arc De Triomphe 2017

greatpilsudski wrote:


enable shortened twice in 45 mins as apparently her main opposition floundered ,obviously neither almanzor or brametot have ran anywhere near to form and both have another chance to redeem on arc trials day i suppose but gosden and her followers must be pretty happy with todays results in france.
Yes, looking good for Enable. Thought Brametot not given much of a race once the winner was away, Almanzor really need judging on next run rather than today although signs not positive.

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#11 2017-08-15 18:25:38

Re: Prix De L' Arc De Triomphe 2017



Backed Idaho when he won at the Royal meeting and again when he finished second to Enable in the King George, granted he would never have laid a glove on the filly, but he was slightly stopped in his run on the home turn at a crucial stage of the race and I reckon he was value for a clear second.


He was 33-1 with Coral the sunday after the King George so backed him each way for the Arc, unless Coral are in the know as to which route they are going with him, a general 20-1 elsewhere, I fail to understand how his older full brother Highland Reel has been shortened in the market today when Idaho beat him fair and square at Ascot.


The race revolves around Enable turning up in peak form on the first sunday in October, not always a guarantee.


Just backed him again with Coral ,33's each way, at least he has a better chance than the sadly deceased Permian who they still have in their market at 25-1.

Last edited by alverton (2017-08-15 18:34:24)

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#12 2017-08-15 19:08:35

greatpilsudski
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Re: Prix De L' Arc De Triomphe 2017

certainty wrote:


greatpilsudski wrote:


enable shortened twice in 45 mins as apparently her main opposition floundered ,obviously neither almanzor or brametot have ran anywhere near to form and both have another chance to redeem on arc trials day i suppose but gosden and her followers must be pretty happy with todays results in france.
Yes, looking good for Enable. Thought Brametot not given much of a race once the winner was away, Almanzor really need judging on next run rather than today although signs not positive.




to be fair to almazor it almost impossible to sprint into a quickening pace,it was such a slow run race with slow early sectionals even up to 2f out and obviously he needed the race.


in comparison ,brametot gave 8l or so at the start,still the french derby form does not look strong,his french guineas win looks much stronger and its no surprise as just like in the uk,the shorter 3yo distance runners look better than the middle distance ones,colts anyway.


i do wonder if he needed it as well,10 weeks off as the 3 french derby horses in this have ran very poor and all 3 havent ran since the french derby in early june.


the next puzzle is has eminent improved? the time comparision isnt fair due to the pace differences.


now eminent beats salouen by 3l but it was 3.5l in the eclipse but obviously eminent was beaten 4.75l in the process.a formline with rivet also as eminent 3.75l better than salouen on earlier form so there seems little difference in there running but they still havent coped between them with the older horses.



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#13 2017-08-15 19:14:30

certainty
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Re: Prix De L' Arc De Triomphe 2017

alverton wrote:




Backed Idaho when he won at the Royal meeting and again when he finished second to Enable in the King George, granted he would never have laid a glove on the filly, but he was slightly stopped in his run on the home turn at a crucial stage of the race and I reckon he was value for a clear second.


He was 33-1 with Coral the sunday after the King George so backed him each way for the Arc, unless Coral are in the know as to which route they are going with him, a general 20-1 elsewhere, I fail to understand how his older full brother Highland Reel has been shortened in the market today when Idaho beat him fair and square at Ascot.


The race revolves around Enable turning up in peak form on the first sunday in October, not always a guarantee.


Just backed him again with Coral ,33's each way, at least he has a better chance than the sadly deceased Permian who they still have in their market at 25-1.
Idaho was third in KG Alverton !

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#14 2017-08-15 20:47:41

Re: Prix De L' Arc De Triomphe 2017

So he was Certainty, backed him each way - , don't have that many bets on the level, probably a wise choice - can't get the result right a month after the race !!!

Last edited by alverton (2017-08-15 20:48:39)

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#15 2017-08-26 09:40:43

Re: Prix De L' Arc De Triomphe 2017


Idaho heading stateside this evening, was more than hopeful of a outside place chance with the King George form cemented by both Enable and Ulysses on the knavesmire.


Already accepted both bets are destined for the dustbin.

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#16 2017-09-18 13:42:24

pk75
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Re: Prix De L' Arc De Triomphe 2017

Thought would post this on here instead of opening a new thread, as race on the same card as the Arc..


Prix De La Foret       Aclaim will head here next in pursuit of a group 1.. Impressive winner in a group 2 @donny. on Saturday... Ideally suited to 7f (3 wins from 4 over the distance..    
More importantly tho absolutely thrives at this time of year... Form between month of September - December reads  1ST  1ST  1ST  1ST  1ST



Meade said: "He's just going the right way now.


"It was a shame he didn't win in France, in another few strides he probably would have done.


"We've got to look for a Group One now, that's two Group Twos he's won.


"He'll go to the Foret next, seven furlongs is his trip and softer ground is no issue.


"That was pretty impressive today, you can ride him anywhere."


Made this my 2nd bet of the meeting, as had a nibble on Enable @8s in mid July.. As can only see Aclaim's price shortening considerably.. Fav Limato no guaranteed runner..  


Aclaim     10/1 EW StanJames

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#17 2017-09-18 18:06:00

certainty
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Re: Prix De L' Arc De Triomphe 2017

pk75 wrote:


Thought would post this on here instead of opening a new thread, as race on the same card as the Arc..


Prix De La Foret       Aclaim will head here next in pursuit of a group 1.. Impressive winner in a group 2 @donny. on Saturday... Ideally suited to 7f (3 wins from 4 over the distance..    
More importantly tho absolutely thrives at this time of year... Form between month of September - December reads  1ST  1ST  1ST  1ST  1ST



Meade said: "He's just going the right way now.


"It was a shame he didn't win in France, in another few strides he probably would have done.


"We've got to look for a Group One now, that's two Group Twos he's won.


"He'll go to the Foret next, seven furlongs is his trip and softer ground is no issue.


"That was pretty impressive today, you can ride him anywhere."


Made this my 2nd bet of the meeting, as had a nibble on Enable @8s in mid July.. As can only see Aclaim's price shortening considerably.. Fav Limato no guaranteed runner..  


Aclaim     10/1 EW StanJames
Great stats pk and good luck with that. What's the word on Limato, any reason you think he won't turn up ?

(updated) Will answer my own question ! Henry Candy has said it's the Floret or nothing for Limato so looks like a runner as long as ground not too soft. If he does run I think anything around his current odds of 5/1 will have to be snapped up. Form of this second in the July Cup has worked out really well and I thought he also ran well at Goodwood which is not a track that suits him in my opinion. I can see an argument that he's not the horse he was but his win record has never been great and when things go his way I still think he's the best older sprinter in Europe.

Last edited by certainty (2017-09-18 18:47:04)

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#18 2017-09-18 21:16:38

pk75
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Re: Prix De L' Arc De Triomphe 2017

certainty wrote:


pk75 wrote:


Thought would post this on here instead of opening a new thread, as race on the same card as the Arc..


Prix De La Foret       Aclaim will head here next in pursuit of a group 1.. Impressive winner in a group 2 @donny. on Saturday... Ideally suited to 7f (3 wins from 4 over the distance..    
More importantly tho absolutely thrives at this time of year... Form between month of September - December reads  1ST  1ST  1ST  1ST  1ST



Meade said: "He's just going the right way now.


"It was a shame he didn't win in France, in another few strides he probably would have done.


"We've got to look for a Group One now, that's two Group Twos he's won.


"He'll go to the Foret next, seven furlongs is his trip and softer ground is no issue.


"That was pretty impressive today, you can ride him anywhere."


Made this my 2nd bet of the meeting, as had a nibble on Enable @8s in mid July.. As can only see Aclaim's price shortening considerably.. Fav Limato no guaranteed runner..  


Aclaim     10/1 EW StanJames
Great stats pk and good luck with that. What's the word on Limato, any reason you think he won't turn up ?

(updated) Will answer my own question ! Henry Candy has said it's the Floret or nothing for Limato so looks like a runner as long as ground not too soft. If he does run I think anything around his current odds of 5/1 will have to be snapped up. Form of this second in the July Cup has worked out really well and I thought he also ran well at Goodwood which is not a track that suits him in my opinion. I can see an argument that he's not the horse he was but his win record has never been great and when things go his way I still think he's the best older sprinter in Europe.
I never said i thought he would not turn up, but that he is no guaranteed runner.. He is (as mentioned by his trainer) ground dependent to making the race..  Whereas likes of Aclaim amongst others are a little bit more versatile when it comes to ground..  Should ground comein  Limato's favour then i too would consider having a good saver on him.. But would not back him anti post, as seems heads or tails whether he makes it to the race.

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#19 2017-09-25 19:52:32

certainty
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Re: Prix De L' Arc De Triomphe 2017

Heavy rain forecast for Chantilly this weekend so guess Limato will not be there, good predict pk ! Enable has shown in the King George he can handle it soft but be best to see what turns up for the Arc and how bad it gets before thinking of backing anything else.

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#20 2017-09-26 20:17:42

certainty
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Re: Prix De L' Arc De Triomphe 2017

Away on hols tomorrow so no more bets and these are mine for the weekend in France.

Arc - Enable 6/1 ew ante post, Seventh Heaven 33/1 ew

Prix de Floret - Brando, 14/1 ew

Prix L'Abbaye - Signs of Blessing, 7/1 ew

GL all and hope heavy ground doesn't make it too much of a lottery.

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#21 2017-09-30 18:08:11

pk75
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Re: Prix De L' Arc De Triomphe 2017

pk75 wrote:


Thought would post this on here instead of opening a new thread, as race on the same card as the Arc..


Prix De La Foret       Aclaim will head here next in pursuit of a group 1.. Impressive winner in a group 2 @donny. on Saturday... Ideally suited to 7f (3 wins from 4 over the distance..    
More importantly tho absolutely thrives at this time of year... Form between month of September - December reads  1ST  1ST  1ST  1ST  1ST



Meade said: "He's just going the right way now.


"It was a shame he didn't win in France, in another few strides he probably would have done.


"We've got to look for a Group One now, that's two Group Twos he's won.


"He'll go to the Foret next, seven furlongs is his trip and softer ground is no issue.


"That was pretty impressive today, you can ride him anywhere."


Made this my 2nd bet of the meeting, as had a nibble on Enable @8s in mid July.. As can only see Aclaim's price shortening considerably.. Fav Limato no guaranteed runner..  


Aclaim     10/1 EW StanJames
10/1 looking very tasty now !!   Aclaim best priced at 11/4 fav for this race, as low as 9/4 in places...  Contemplating whether to lay some off or not

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#22 2017-09-30 21:39:26

jimpy
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Re: Prix De L' Arc De Triomphe 2017

pk75 wrote:


pk75 wrote:


Thought would post this on here instead of opening a new thread, as race on the same card as the Arc..


Prix De La Foret       Aclaim will head here next in pursuit of a group 1.. Impressive winner in a group 2 @donny. on Saturday... Ideally suited to 7f (3 wins from 4 over the distance..    
More importantly tho absolutely thrives at this time of year... Form between month of September - December reads  1ST  1ST  1ST  1ST  1ST



Meade said: "He's just going the right way now.


"It was a shame he didn't win in France, in another few strides he probably would have done.


"We've got to look for a Group One now, that's two Group Twos he's won.


"He'll go to the Foret next, seven furlongs is his trip and softer ground is no issue.


"That was pretty impressive today, you can ride him anywhere."


Made this my 2nd bet of the meeting, as had a nibble on Enable @8s in mid July.. As can only see Aclaim's price shortening considerably.. Fav Limato no guaranteed runner..  


Aclaim     10/1 EW StanJames
10/1 looking very tasty now !!   Aclaim best priced at 11/4 fav for this race, as low as 9/4 in places...  Contemplating whether to lay some off or not
Great price pk , well done , hopefully it goes and wins now!

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#23 2017-09-30 21:55:15

pk75
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Re: Prix De L' Arc De Triomphe 2017

Cheers jimpy, wont lie, starting to get concerns regarding the ground, hopefully doesnt get too soft come the race, but bodes well that the trainers 2 horses today managed to come 1st &4th in the Cambrigeshire today

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#24 2017-10-01 17:36:15

pk75
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Re: Prix De L' Arc De Triomphe 2017

pk75 wrote:


Thought would post this on here instead of opening a new thread, as race on the same card as the Arc..


Prix De La Foret       Aclaim will head here next in pursuit of a group 1.. Impressive winner in a group 2 @donny. on Saturday... Ideally suited to 7f (3 wins from 4 over the distance..    
More importantly tho absolutely thrives at this time of year... Form between month of September - December reads  1ST  1ST  1ST  1ST  1ST



Meade said: "He's just going the right way now.


"It was a shame he didn't win in France, in another few strides he probably would have done.


"We've got to look for a Group One now, that's two Group Twos he's won.


"He'll go to the Foret next, seven furlongs is his trip and softer ground is no issue.


"That was pretty impressive today, you can ride him anywhere."


Made this my 2nd bet of the meeting, as had a nibble on Enable @8s in mid July.. As can only see Aclaim's price shortening considerably.. Fav Limato no guaranteed runner..  


Aclaim     10/1 EW StanJames


ACLAIM  Now has a record between months of September - December of:


1ST  1ST  1ST  1ST  1ST 1ST0

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#25 2017-10-01 20:04:41

agentoranje
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Re: Prix De L' Arc De Triomphe 2017

Fantastic Tip PK.


Made my weekend.


Thank You.


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