RaceCaller Forum

Always at the races

You are not logged in.

#1 2017-07-17 15:37:59

certainty
Forum Pro
Join Date: 2017-01-20
Posts: 674

Prix De L' Arc De Triomphe 2017

Only about four months (!) till the Arc so thought I'd open a thread which people can add to as race gets closer.

Minding's retirement takes one major contender out of the picture and we've yet to see the brilliant Almanzor yet this season but he's still 6/1 ante post favourite. If he comes back as good or better than last year then he would take all the beating in my opinion although his trainer JC Rouget also has French Derby and 2000 Guineas winner Brametot who is 8/1 in the betting. The form of those two races doesn't look anything special but he won them both with a very late run so it's hard to say how much he had in hand, maybe plenty. If he does go for the Arc he could need a good draw and luck in running.

I would put a line through any of the UK and Irish 3yo colts, none of whom look good enough, and the best British 3yo hope must be Enable who is now 2nd fave at 8/1. She's looked very good without beating much and her rating is still well below that achieved by recent 3yo fillies who've won the Arc and I'd like to see her against the boys and/or older horse before getting carried away.

Unfortunately I don't know anything about the Japanese runners other than their trainers would love to win the race but haven't done so yet which would put me off. Satono Diamond is best priced of theirs at 14/1

Highland Reel
(14/1) was second in the race last and looked better than ever this season but not sure many runners up from the Arc have come back to win and another place looks more likely if he takes his chances.

At the ante post prices the one I think could be worth a punt at 33/1 is O'Brien's Seventh Heaven. She's a dual Group 1 winner including a defeat of Found and has started her 4yo season in good style with a second to Jack Hobbs in Dubai and an easy Group 2 win at Newmarket. With Minding retired they might be looking after her for the Arc and though she wouldn't win a high quality version she's good enough to be competitive in an average renewal, as Found was last year.

Thoughts ?

Offline

 

#2 2017-07-17 18:04:30

greatpilsudski
Forum Pro
Join Date: 2012-10-29
Posts: 950

Re: Prix De L' Arc De Triomphe 2017

found i think was the first horse for a long time to win after running in it and not winning it the previous season.


the horse who beat highland reel in hing kong apperently isnt being aimed at it that would be the other satono crown 


im thinking the fillies will keep up there recent good record with 6 wins from the last 9.


im ruling out 3yo colts so either fillies or older horses for me.id be inclined to think enable or if it was soft jack hobbs


there was also a good stat that was boken last year but a group 1 win that season by at least 2l is quite common and both these 2 have done this.

Offline

 

#3 2017-07-17 20:09:34

certainty
Forum Pro
Join Date: 2017-01-20
Posts: 674

Re: Prix De L' Arc De Triomphe 2017

greatpilsudski wrote:


found i think was the first horse for a long time to win after running in it and not winning it the previous season.


the horse who beat highland reel in hing kong apperently isnt being aimed at it that would be the other satono crown 


im thinking the fillies will keep up there recent good record with 6 wins from the last 9.


im ruling out 3yo colts so either fillies or older horses for me.id be inclined to think enable or if it was soft jack hobbs


there was also a good stat that was boken last year but a group 1 win that season by at least 2l is quite common and both these 2 have done this.
Forgot Jack Hobbs, he is 20/1 which to me looks a better price than his 10/1 for the King George where ground is much more likely to be fast. Not many 5yos have won the Arc in recent decades but it does seem better horses are staying in training longer these days so maybe that trend is not so strong as it used to be ?


Offline

 

#4 2017-07-18 10:21:13

robbie14
Forum Pro
Join Date: 2014-10-31
Posts: 1155

Re: Prix De L' Arc De Triomphe 2017

A few really good suggestions above and plenty of each way value in the race at this stage I think considering there is a few horses there at the front end of the market which we dont know are going to run. I would personally like to think that Brametot is definitely going for the race and he would be my selection. His form is rock solid beating Le Brevido at Deauville in May who then went onto beat the group 2 class of milers in England and Ireland in the Jersey stakes, hes got pace yet hes won the French Derby over a mile and a quarter. I think that he will be dropped out and come with a late run to finish strongly. I think he will just have too much speed for the likes of Enable 



Offline

 

Board footer

Powered by PunBB
© Copyright 2002–2008 PunBB

Message to