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#51 2017-09-05 18:27:54

moonman66
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Re: VDW ..My take..

dearremus wrote:


When you divide winnings by wins , do you use total winnings or just money from first places ?
total winnings 
six steps what you are looking for 
1 find top 3 in official ratings
2 total prize money from the horse has competed in on its last free starts 
3 pick the consistent horse by adding up the last three runs i/e form
4 look at the top three in the race with the top speed figure
5 look at the amount of runs to prize money earned i/e ability
Then look for the horse that makes all five of the above 
Then if any of the final checks fall into the top 5 in the betting if left with one thats the selecton

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#52 2017-09-05 19:32:11

certainty
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Re: VDW ..My take..

Don't follow systems but always like to hear how others approach punting and it;s an interesting thread. One thing that seems to me to be a big hole in the VDW method is that it's way of judging form and class takes no account of the effect of ground going and course form on that. If a horse has won lots of valuable races on soft or heavy then that class level is unlikely to be transferred to fast ground and if a horse has won three on the spin at Chester it doesn't meant that good form will count at Ascot. One of the founders of timeform said ground going was the most important deciding factor when backing a horse and even if you don't go that far it seems odd to ignore the huge differences in ground and course form we get in the UK and Ireland.

Anyway, good luck all with this experiment and hovis with his excellent picks.

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#53 2017-09-05 21:42:49

hovis1956
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Re: VDW ..My take..

15:50 Lingfield - Song Of Summer
17:55 Kempton - Magic Mirror
20:25 Kempton - Artful Rogue
20:55 Kempton - See And Be Seen
14:40 Chepstow - Amood
15:40 Chepstow - Rigoletto
16:40 Chepstow - Priors Brook - Seven Clans


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#54 2017-09-06 08:45:01

pendil
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Re: VDW ..My take..

moonman66 wrote:


dearremus wrote:


When you divide winnings by wins , do you use total winnings or just money from first places ?
total winnings 
six steps what you are looking for 
1 find top 3 in official ratings
2 total prize money from the horse has competed in on its last free starts 
3 pick the consistent horse by adding up the last three runs i/e form
4 look at the top three in the race with the top speed figure
5 look at the amount of runs to prize money earned i/e ability
Then look for the horse that makes all five of the above 
Then if any of the final checks fall into the top 5 in the betting if left with one thats the selecton
 Pretty close to what I am doing...Trying to keep it simple and quick.


1 .class 4 or better ,hcaps /listed /stakes /graded races..No 2yo or maidens or Novice hurdles/chases.
2    9 runners or less


3.Add last 3 form figures together and take lowest to next stage.


4 .Check racing post top speed .selection must be top last time out..If it is then onto the final stage.
5 Rate entire field for ability. Click on each horse ..(Now this step is open to interpretation )  I divide all prize money won by the number of races run then divide by 100..BUT if its national hunt I only use the prize money and runs of that discipline .i.e if its a hurdle race then only Hurdle money and runs and if its a chase then only chase money and runs.
Finally selection really needs to have run within the last 60 days (open to interpretation again)
If the selection comes through that and is in the first 3 in the betting then back..


Shall give an example for today..

Last edited by pendil (2017-09-06 08:47:05)

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#55 2017-09-06 09:01:32

moonman66
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Re: VDW ..My take..

hi pendil i have just rated the 1540


racecard order 


2   3.1   23  40   81
3  1.3   6    80   79 
4  1.9  8    70   70
5  1.6  12  40   79
6  1.1  15  100  71
7  1.2  12  30  83
8  0.8  18  100  79
looking at the top four in each row  race card number 3 ticked all four boxes and the last two 80 and 79 not far off being the same thats what the dutch man  wanted to try and get race card 4 ticked three boxes but the last two were the same 70 and 70 
Ehtiraas 7/2
Rigoletto 9/4 
i think the last two rows are the missing link but looks worth a dutch on the two selecions

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#56 2017-09-06 09:24:20

pendil
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Re: VDW ..My take..

Example Wedensday 6th September ...3.30 Southwell  Class 3 Handicap Hurdle 6 Run


                                            form fig   lto top speed         prize money
1  Curious Carlos                2f2  = 14      96                 42,999 div 23=1869 div 100=18
2 Braavos                           p23 = 15       81                20,226 div 11=1838 div 100=18
3 Doubly Clever                 142 = 7***     122***          36,371 div 18=2020 div 100=20***
4 Holly Bush Henry           966 = 21        83                17,147 div 11=1558 div 100=15
5 Dovils Date                    355 = 13        -                   30,307 div 20=1515 div 100=15
6 Gabrial The Great         324 = 9 101 (chase) 13,143 div 9=1460 div 100 =14


So Doubly Clever has come through each stage and was 5/1 3rd Fav last night (now 4/1)
So i should be backing him but a couple of things put me off.


1  Curious Carlos has been running well and the 'f' was a first hurdle fall without that he would most likely be top on form 


2 Gabrial The Great is very well in on chase form and a quick look on David Pipes site (Chester Barns daily blog ) tells that they are expecting a big run..
What i shall do is wait until the 'without fav' markets have opened and see what price Doubly Clever is without Carlos ..2/1 or above i will back him to beat Gabrial..


Hope that is clear..


Seems a lot of work ..but if you do it stage by stage then its easy.


because if you find one in a class 4 or better with 9 runners or less who is clear on form but then his top speed figure is not the best you stop and move on.

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#57 2017-09-06 11:10:17

hovis1956
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Re: VDW ..My take..

15:50 Lingfield - Song Of Summer -
17:55 Kempton - Magic Mirror -
20:25 Kempton - Artful Rogue
20:55 Kempton - See And Be Seen
14:40 Chepstow - Amood
15:40 Chepstow - Rigoletto
16:40 Chepstow - Priors Brook - Seven Clans -


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#58 2017-09-06 11:46:24

pendil
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Re: VDW ..My take..

Backed Doubly Clever without Curious Carlos in the race at 5/2 with 365..

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#59 2017-09-06 18:39:29

hovis1956
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Re: VDW ..My take..

15:30 Haydock - Pecheurs De Perles
16:35 Haydock - Niblawi - E/W on Marmajuke Bay
14:20 Salisbury - Shovel It On
15:50 Salisbury - Eirene
16:50 Salisbury - Langlauf - E/W - Uber Cool - Win
15:40 Sedgefield - Court Dismissed

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#60 2017-09-06 21:07:13

hovis1956
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Re: VDW ..My take..

hovis1956 wrote:


15:50 Lingfield - Song Of Summer -
17:55 Kempton - Magic Mirror -
20:25 Kempton - Artful Rogue
20:55 Kempton - See And Be Seen
14:40 Chepstow - Amood
15:40 Chepstow - Rigoletto
16:40 Chepstow - Priors Brook - Seven Clans -


15:50 Lingfield - Song Of Summer - 1st
17:55 Kempton - Magic Mirror - 2nd
20:25 Kempton - Artful Rogue - Lost
20:55 Kempton - See And Be Seen - Lost
14:40 Chepstow - Amood - 3rd
15:40 Chepstow - Rigoletto - 1st
16:40 Chepstow - Priors Brook - Seven Clans - 3rd

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#61 2017-09-07 23:53:21

hovis1956
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Re: VDW ..My take..

16:25 Ascot - Gawdawpalin
17:05 Musselburgh - Noah Amor
17:10 Newcastle - Jack Blane
18:35 Musselburgh - Magical Effect
19:05 Musselburgh - Jonny Delta - Canny Style

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#62 2017-09-08 17:19:06

pendil
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Re: VDW ..My take..

Selection number 4 for me


Saturday 9/9 8.00 Wolv Gold Star  early price 15/8.


Gold Star won 5/6  


selections 4 won 2 = 50%


sp +.33


early/bog = +2.63.

Last edited by pendil (2017-09-10 09:17:35)

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#63 2017-09-08 20:34:26

hovis1956
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Re: VDW ..My take..

13:20 Haydock - Empress Ali
15:00 Haydock - Soie D'leau
15:35 Haydock - Ballet Concerto
16:45 Haydock - Time To Study
---------------------------------------
13:55 Stratford - Exitas
15:05 Stratford - Shady Glen
15:40 Stratford - Dear Sire
------------------------------------
17:15 Thirsk - Chancery

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#64 2017-09-09 17:33:15

hovis1956
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Re: VDW ..My take..

hovis1956 wrote:


13:20 Haydock - Empress Ali
15:00 Haydock - Soie D'leau
15:35 Haydock - Ballet Concerto
16:45 Haydock - Time To Study
---------------------------------------
13:55 Stratford - Exitas
15:05 Stratford - Shady Glen
15:40 Stratford - Dear Sire
------------------------------------
17:15 Thirsk - Chancery

13:20 Haydock - Empress Ali - 2nd
15:00 Haydock - Soie D'leau - 2nd
15:35 Haydock - Ballet Concerto - 1st
16:45 Haydock - Time To Study - 3rd
---------------------------------------
13:55 Stratford - Exitas - 1st
15:05 Stratford - Shady Glen - Lost
15:40 Stratford - Dear Sire - 1st
---------------------------------- -
17:15 Thirsk - Chancery - Lost


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#65 2017-09-09 19:31:45

hovis1956
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Re: VDW ..My take..

14:20 Fontwell - Poetic Lady
16:35 Fontwell - White Valiant
17:10 Fontwell - Lee Side Lady
-------------------------------------
16:10 York - Graceful Lady
17:20 York - Dakota Gold

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#66 2017-09-10 09:28:34

pendil
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Re: VDW ..My take..

moonman66 wrote:


hi pendil i have just rated the 1540


racecard order 


2   3.1   23  40   81
3  1.3   6    80   79 
4  1.9  8    70   70
5  1.6  12  40   79
6  1.1  15  100  71
7  1.2  12  30  83
8  0.8  18  100  79
looking at the top four in each row  race card number 3 ticked all four boxes and the last two 80 and 79 not far off being the same thats what the dutch man  wanted to try and get race card 4 ticked three boxes but the last two were the same 70 and 70 
Ehtiraas 7/2
Rigoletto 9/4 
i think the last two rows are the missing link but looks worth a dutch on the two selecions
 
Just seen this post..Well done ,I think that when you get 2 that are well ahead of the field dutching is the way to go..I look to make a set profit ..I use UK Horseracing tools. Put the odds in and the profit that i want and it quickly tells me the stake.
For those 2 to make £50 it would be 32.73 @ 9/4 and 23.64 @ 7/2 which is just a shade of odds on..Need to be certain that you have the right 2 when betting at short odds otherwise failure is expensive..

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#67 2017-09-10 09:47:07

connemara
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Join Date: 2017-04-02
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Re: VDW ..My take..

This is a really interesting thread. I know of VDW and read some bits an pieces. I did buy a couple of Sad Kens booklets which were loosely based on VDW, but some of his rules were pretty ambiguous to say the least and did not seem to rule out many horses.


Excellent tipping and results for Hovis to date, well done!

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#68 2017-09-10 10:00:46

pendil
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Join Date: 2010-09-23
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Re: VDW ..My take..

Due to non runners there is a selection


5.10 Font Bestwork  best price 13/8 


lost 13/8 out to 4/1 ????? ummmm.


was it the lay off or the hike in the weights ? same with Miss Conway


Any way another one on Monday


3.35 Perth Theo best early price 2/1 ...This one us up a massive 14lb but he only ran 9 days ago..dont think he beat much that day as the fav ran no sort of race but he is on an upward curve so i shall back him.

Last edited by pendil (2017-09-10 17:38:08)

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#69 2017-09-10 19:25:38

hovis1956
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Join Date: 2012-08-09
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Re: VDW ..My take..

14:25 Brighton - One Big Surprise
15:25 Brighton - Field of Vision
16:25 Brighton - Av A Word
16:55 Brighton - Luxford
16:05 Perth - Urban Kode - Devito'sgoldengirl
15:15 Newton Abbot - Lillian


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#70 2017-09-11 20:11:57

hovis1956
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Re: VDW ..My take..

16:25 Leicester - War Glory
15:05 Worcester - Hallings Comet
16:05 Worcester - Green or Black - G For Ginger
15:15 Catterick - Aimez La Vie - Arcadian Angel
16:15 Catterick - Spirit of Zebedee
16:45 Catterick - Vindicator - Wolfcatcherjack

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#71 2017-09-12 22:56:21

hovis1956
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Re: VDW ..My take..

14:10 Carlisle - Havana Star - * - 10/3
14:40 Carlisle - Im Dapper Too - * - 5/2
15:40 Carlisle - Gurkha Friend - 7/1
15:30 Uttoxeter - Gustave Mahler - * - 9/4
14:50 Doncaster - Ventura Knight - 8/1
17:20 Doncaster - Muatadel - * - 11/2
14:35 Listowel - Perfect Soldier - 13/8
16:05 Listowel - Tempestatefloresco - 20/1


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#72 2017-09-13 22:19:04

hovis1956
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Re: VDW ..My take..

13:40 Chepstow - Holiday Girl 11/8 - Mr Tyrrell - 7/2
14:15 Chepstow - Global Exceed - 2/1
14:25 Doncaster - Nyaleti - 3/1
15:35 Doncaster - Tangled - 9/2

17:20 Listowel - Swamp Fox - 10/3

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#73 2017-09-14 18:02:47

pendil
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Re: VDW ..My take..

Selection 7 3.25 Chester Nathan best price 11/10


So far 6 selections 2 won =33%
sp -1.67


early/bog = +.63

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#74 2017-09-15 11:45:55

hovis1956
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Re: VDW ..My take..

16:15 Sandown - Call Me Grumpy - Grand Inquisitor
16:45 Sandown - Fast And Hot
13:50 Doncaster - Tomyris
14:25 Doncaster - Havana Grey
15:35 Doncaster - Thomas Hobson
17:10 Doncaster - Swilly Sunset

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#75 2017-09-15 23:46:49

hovis1956
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Join Date: 2012-08-09
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Re: VDW ..My take..

14:25 Doncaster - Home Of The Brave
15:35 Doncaster - Capri - Stradivarius
16:10 Doncaster - Rhosneigr
16:45 Doncaster - Battered
17:15 Musselburgh - Dominating
18:45 Musselburgh - State Residence
13:55 Lingfield - Rainbow Rising
14:30 Lingfield - Snowy Winter
16:15 Lingfield - Angel Of Darkness - Pepita

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