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#1 2017-03-21 00:09:00

racecaller
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AINTREE GRAND NATIONAL TRENDS 2017

The highlight for many of the national hunt calendar, the Randox Health Grand National takes place at Aintree on Saturday 8th April. It’s always a fiercely competitive cavalry charge, you need plenty of luck to win it but there are plenty of key trends that can help to narrow the field down.

 

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

 

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

6yo: 0-0-2

7yo: 0-0-23

8yo: 1-7-67

9yo: 3-9-111

10yo: 3-7-103

11yo: 3-5-56

12yo: 0-1-27

13yo+: 0-1-9

Every winner since WWII (1946) has been aged 8 to 12

In the past 10 years all 38 of 40 places were filled by horses aged 8 to 11

All 3 winners aged 8 in last 30 years have finished in first 5 in the Hennessy Gold Cup earlier that season.

All 25 horses aged younger than 8 have been unplaced and only 2 of 36 horses aged 12+ have made the frame.

 

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)

Horses carrying 11-7 or more: 1-1-32

Horses carrying 11-0 to 11-6: 4-8-91

Horses carrying 10-6 to 10-13: 4-16-188

Horses carrying 10-5 or less: 1-5-87

Horses carrying 11-0 or more have won 5 of 10 but represented just 30.9% of total runners.

The last 4 horses that managed to make the places, carrying 11-7+, had won previous year’s race or finished in first 6 in Cheltenham Gold Cup on previous start.

9 of 10 winners were initially allotted a weight of at least 10-5 on publication of National weights, exception Auroras Encore was allotted 9-13.

8 of 10 winners carried no more than a stone higher than the bottom weight

Top Weight: 900UF3FPUP0 (0-1-11)

 

Official Ratings

Horses rated 149 or higher: 4-10-134

Horses rated 136 to 148: 6-20-256

Horses rated 127 to 135: 0-0-8

In recent years the trend has swung towards higher rated runners, with 27 of 32 places since 2009 going to horses rated 143+.

In last 8 years

Horses rated 143 or higher: 7-20-224

Horses rated 142 or lower: 1-4-94

 

Breeding

Irish bred: 6-24-243

French bred: 3-2-84

British bred: 1-4-63

Other: 0-0-8

Mon Mome became the first French bred since 1909 to win the Grand National when landing the race in 2009 and Neptune Collonges & Pineau De Re followed up the feat in 2012 & 2014.  

Irish bred horses have won 6 of the last 10 and filled in 30 of 40 places (75%) from approximately 61% of the runners.

Old Vic has sired 26 National runners in 7 runnings in past 10 years, with a record of 2-5-26. He has sired one of the first 3 home in 6 of last 8 renewals, in which he’s been represented.

 

Recent/Past Form

7 of 10 winners finished in the first 4 on last completed start (1 exception 6th in Gold Cup, another 8th in Midlands National)

7 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 146+ on last chase start

10 of 10 winners had run since National weights were announced

9 of 10 winners had won no more than 1 chase that season (Exception was Many Clouds, who had won 3)

6 of 10 winners had won a listed or graded chase (2 exceptions had won a class 2 chase worth 30K+, 1 had been 2nd in a grade 1 and other had won the Ulster Grand National)

8 of 10 winners had won a chase worth 29K+ (1 exception 2nd in a chase worth 111K)

10 of 10 winners had run 3 to 6 times since 1st September

9 of 10 winners had won a chase over 3M+ (exception was maiden who had finished 2nd in previous Irish National)

10 of 10 winners had run in at least 10 chases

8 of 10 winners had won 3 to 5 chases (exceptions had won 0 & 11)

8 of 10 winners had contested 1 to 9 handicap chases

10 of 10 winners had won 0 to 3 handicap chases

8 of 10 winners were 2nd, 3rd or 4th season chasers

The last 4 second season chasers to have won this in past 10 years were Numbersixvalverde, who won the Thyestes and Irish Grand National as a novice, Pineau De Re, who won the Ulster Grand National as a novice, Many Clouds, who won Hennessy Gold up on 8th chase start and Rule The World, who was 2nd in Irish National as a novice)

10 of 10 winners posted career high RPR in a chase over 3M+

9 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR at a left-handed track

8 of 10 winners had previously been officially rated 148 or higher

9 of 10 winners had posted an RPR of 147+ in a chase over 3M+ at a left handed track

8 of 10 winners had posted an RPR of 134+ in a chase over 3M 4F+ (exceptions Ballabriggs & Many Clouds had not run over furthe than 3M 3F)

5 of 10 winners had a run over hurdles in January, February or March

 

Course form

Record of placed finishers from previous GN: 09UU49F0374UU02U4 (0-5-17)

Prev season's Becher Chase winner (Highland Lodge): 2B0 (0-1-3)

Becher Chase winner (Vieux Lion Rouge): PPFUPF60 (0-0-8)

Grand Sefton Chase winner (As De Mee):

Only 3 of 10 winners had previously run over the National fences

Only 1 of 10 winners had won over the National fences, last 2 winners that had won over the fences did so in the Becher Chase 2 seasons previous

2 of 10 winners had run in the previous season's Grand National, finishing F0

4 of 10 winners ran at the previous year's Aintree National meeting (2 in GN, 1 in Mildmay Novice Chase & 1 in John Smith's H'cap Chase), 2 exceptions finished in first 6 in Scottish National, 1 exception 2nd in previous season's Irish National, 1 won the Kim Muir and other exception did not race the previous season

 

Other Nationals

Previous season's Scottish National winner (Vicente): 5U (0-0-2)

Highest placed finisher from previous Scottish National: U16U1U5 (2-0-7)

Record of first 9 from previous Scottish National: PU415U811PU5 (3-1-12)

Previous season's Irish National winner (Rogue Angel): FFFP05 (0-0-6)

Two season's previous Irish National winner (Thunder And Roses): 6P75P9 (0-0-6)

5 of 10 winners had finished in the first 3 in either the Irish, Welsh, Scottish or Aintree Grand Nationals

3 of 10 winners had run in a Welsh National, finishing 1P2

3 of 8 British-trained winners ran in previous year's Scottish National, finishing 962

2 of last 3 Irish-trained winners ran in previous year's Irish National, finishing 12

 

Other Races

Previous season's Betfred TV H'cap Chase winner (Maggio): 19R (1-0-3)

Previous season's Kim Muir winner (Cause Of Causes): 671FU0 (1-0-6)

Grimthorpe Chase winner (Definitly Red): 2 (0-1-1)

Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase winner (Cause Of Causes): 2F (0-1-2)

Previous season's 4M NH Novice Chase winner (Minella Rocco): FB3 (0-1-3)

Ivan Straker Memorial Chase winner (Saphir Du Rheu): F0 (0-0-2)

Pat Taaffe H'cap Chase winner (Pleasant Company): 9U (0-0-2)

Rowland Meyrick Handicap Chase winner (Definitly Red): B0 (0-0-2)

Classic Chase winner (One For Arthur): UB (0-0-2)

Silver Cup H'cap Chase winner (Regal Encore): PP (0-0-2)

Haydock Grand National Trial winner (Vieux Lion Rouge): PP (0-0-2)

BetBright Best For Festival Betting H'cap Chase winner (Shantou Flyer): PF0 (0-0-3)

Irish Daily Mirror Chase winner (Roi Des Francs): PUU (0-0-3)

Sky Bet Chase winner (Ziga Boy): F60U (0-0-4)

Bobbyjo Chase winner (Pleasant Company): PUU6P (0-0-5)

2 of 8 British-trained winners ran in Hennessy Gold Cup, finishing P1

2 of 8 British-trained winners ran in Haydock GN Trial, finishing 72

2 of 8 British-trained winners ran in Kelso Premier Chase last time, finishing 25

2 of 8 British-trained winners ran in Pertemps Network H'cap Hurdle last time, finishing P3

2 of 8 British-trained winners (2 of last 3) ran in Summer Plate, finishing 00

 

Racing Tactics

6 of 10 winners raced prominently

3 of 10 winners raced in mid-division

1 of 10 winners were held up

 

Trainers

Trainers who have won the race in the past 10 years and have entries this year are:

Jonjo O’Neill (1-2-21), Paul Nicholls (1-2-36), David Pipe (1-1-27), Richard Newland (1-0-3), Sue Smith (1-0-4), Mouse Morris (1-0-5), Gordon Elliot (1-0-10), Venetia Williams (1-0-10) and Donald McCain (1-0-16).

Willie Mullins (0-1-26) won this in 2005 but has seen just 2 of his 27 runners since then make the frame.

Kim Bailey (0-1-6) & Dermot McLoughlin (0-1-1) saddled The Last Samuri & Vics Canvas to be 2nd & 3rd respectively in 2016.

Rebecca Curtis (0-1-4), Tom George (0-1-4) & Ted Walsh (0-1-6) have each saddled 1 placed finisher.  

Philip Hobbs (0-1-15), Nicky Henderson (0-0-11) and Nigel Twiston-Davies (0-0-23) have managed just 1 placed finisher in past 10 runnings from a combined 49 runners.

2 of 10 winners were trained in Ireland (2-11-114) from approximately 28.6% of total runners. Bobbyjo, in 1999, became first Irish winner since 1975. Between 1999 & 2007, Irish-trained runners won 6 of 9 runnings. Since 2008, Irish-trained runners have a record of 1-10-103.

 

Price

In the past 10 years there have been some surprise winners, with three 33/1 winners in 2007, 2012 & 2016, a 100/1 winner in 2009, a 66/1 winner in 2013 and a 25/1 winner in 2015.

Favourites (2-4-17) have gained 2 wins in past 10 years, giving a level stakes loss of 0.50.

 

Summary:

 

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

 

- Aged 9 to 11 (or 8yo that finished in first 5 in 2016 Hennessy Gold Cup)

- Carrying no more than 14lbs higher than bottom weight

- Officially rated 143 or higher (ideally rated 148+ at some point in career)

- Respect horses sired by Old Vic

- Finished in first 3 on last completed start

- Posted an RPR of 146+ on last completed chase start

- Won no more than one chase this season

- Won a listed or graded chase worth 29K+

- Won over 3M+

- Run 3 to 6 times since September 2016 & run since 14th February 2017

- Run in at least 10 chases (winning at least 3)

- Posted career highest RPR in a chase over 3M+ (ideally at a left-handed track)

- Has posted an RPR of 147+ in a chase over 3M 2F+

- Has run over hurdles in 2017

- Finished in first 3 in a previous Welsh or Irish National

- Finished in first 9 in 2016 Scottish National

- Finished in first 5 in a previous Hennessy Gold Cup

- Finished in first 5 in Totepoolliveinfo.com Premier Chase or Pertemps Network H’cap Hurdle last time

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#2 2017-03-21 22:14:12

certainty
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Re: AINTREE GRAND NATIONAL TRENDS 2017

The oddschecker website had some more stats which are quite interesting reading, these are some of them, full piece here: http://www.oddschecker.com/tips/horse-racing/grand-national/20170321-how-to-find-the-2017-grand-national-winner

Stat: 15 of the 16 finishers last season were aged under ten,
highlighting the changing nature of the race following the
modifications.

Key Stamina Stat: The last 45 winners had won over at least three miles

Key Jumping Stat: 16 of the last 20 winners had fallen or unseated their rider no more than twice.

Key Leading Race Guides Stat: 13 of the last 20 winners had won or been placed in a National of any description before.

Key Cheltenham Festival Form Stat: Only one Cheltenham Festival
winner from the same season has gone on to win since 1961, though eight
horses beaten at the Cheltenham Festival have won since 1991.

Key Recent Form Stat: Only two of the last 19 winners had won more than once earlier in the season.

Key Previous Aintree Experience Stat: Only one of the last 74
top-four finishers from last season’s race to return has gone on to win.

Key Owners & Trainers Stat: Trevor Hemmings has won three
times since 2002 and J P McManus has owned a top-four finisher in 8 of
the last 13 years.

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#3 2017-03-22 22:20:35

certainty
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Re: AINTREE GRAND NATIONAL TRENDS 2017

Long shortlist. Horses must be aged 8-11, no more than two career falls/pulled up, won over 3m, ran more than 10 chases, not a Cheltenham winner this year, not placed in previous Nationals, rated 148 or over at some point in career and proven in quality races (graded or top handicaps) :

Carlingford Lough
Last Samuri
The Young Master
Perfect Candidate
Saphir du Rheu
Wonderful Charm
Wounded Warrior
Tenor Nivernais (only on soft)
Blaklion
Highland Lodge
One for Arthur
Lord Windemere
Definitly Red
Vicente
Just A Par
Bishops Road (only on heavy)

(Reluctantly left Ucello Conti off list as only 9 chase starts and no win over 3m)

That's more than half the field out the way, some of them probably won't run and the ground will be against others so hopefully be able to get it down to single figures nearer the time.

Only bet so far Highland Lodge 50/1 ew.

Last edited by certainty (2017-03-23 09:21:22)

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#4 2017-03-23 08:35:34

fadinglight
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Re: AINTREE GRAND NATIONAL TRENDS 2017

Excellent work certainty, for what it's worth my fancys at this stage are Blacklion and Saphir  du Rhey

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#5 2017-03-23 10:29:47

broadway
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Re: AINTREE GRAND NATIONAL TRENDS 2017


Certainty....thanks for taking the time to post this. Pleased to see two of my bets in your list Perfect Candidate 50/1 and Blaklion 25/1. You pass on my other one Ucello Conti 33/1 who has G Nat and Becher Chase form....................................as with all ante post bets it feels like a win already if they get to the post.


Good luck.

Last edited by broadway (2017-03-23 10:31:23)

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#6 2017-03-23 15:11:47

jh2103
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Re: AINTREE GRAND NATIONAL TRENDS 2017

Good stuff certainty, not sure if cause of causes can go on the list? Taking the same path as silver birch? Yes ucello conti 4th in the becher ties in with the form. My antipost thread taken down i think you no who and why. Anyway already on one for Arthur, veuix lion rouge, highland lodge. Going to back definitely red and cause of causes on the day. Also these 5 on ew trebles and doubles maybe with the topham race etc need to take a good look before i do though, abit of spread betting.
Grand national 1-2-3-4-5
1st One for Arthur
2nd veuix lion rouge
3rd definitely red
4th highland lodge
5th cause of causes

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#7 2017-03-23 17:56:30

certainty
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Re: AINTREE GRAND NATIONAL TRENDS 2017

broadway wrote:



Certainty....thanks for taking the time to post this. Pleased to see two of my bets in your list Perfect Candidate 50/1 and Blaklion 25/1. You pass on my other one Ucello Conti 33/1 who has G Nat and Becher Chase form....................................as with all ante post bets it feels like a win already if they get to the post.


Good luck.
Think Conti has a lot going for him broadway and would be happy to be sitting on 33/1 ante post ! But the lack of a 3m win and only 9 runs over fences are a big negative which is why he didn't make my list. GL to you

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#8 2017-03-23 18:02:26

certainty
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Re: AINTREE GRAND NATIONAL TRENDS 2017

jh2103 wrote:


Good stuff certainty, not sure if cause of causes can go on the list? Taking the same path as silver birch? Yes ucello conti 4th in the becher ties in with the form. My antipost thread taken down i think you no who and why. Anyway already on one for Arthur, veuix lion rouge, highland lodge. Going to back definitely red and cause of causes on the day. Also these 5 on ew trebles and doubles maybe with the topham race etc need to take a good look before i do though, abit of spread betting.

Grand national 1-2-3-4-5

1st One for Arthur

2nd veuix lion rouge

3rd definitely red

4th highland lodge

5th cause of causes
The record of Cheltenham winners in the National is poor jh although I wonder if that is because the Festival used to be closer to the race ?? On paper Causes looks strong but I do think his season is all about Cheltenham and that would be a negative for me. Definitily Red is the best handicapped horse in the race (10lb well in) but just checked and only had 9 starts over fences so as with Ucello Conti that would be a worry. Also his wins this season have all been in quite small fields (11 at most) so just wonder if combination of his age and lack of experience of this type of race may count against him ?

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#9 2017-03-23 18:13:59

jh2103
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Re: AINTREE GRAND NATIONAL TRENDS 2017

certainty wrote:


jh2103 wrote:


Good stuff certainty, not sure if cause of causes can go on the list? Taking the same path as silver birch? Yes ucello conti 4th in the becher ties in with the form. My antipost thread taken down i think you no who and why. Anyway already on one for Arthur, veuix lion rouge, highland lodge. Going to back definitely red and cause of causes on the day. Also these 5 on ew trebles and doubles maybe with the topham race etc need to take a good look before i do though, abit of spread betting.


Grand national 1-2-3-4-5


1st One for Arthur


2nd veuix lion rouge


3rd definitely red


4th highland lodge


5th cause of causes
The record of Cheltenham winners in the National is poor jh although I wonder if that is because the Festival used to be closer to the race ?? On paper Causes looks strong but I do think his season is all about Cheltenham and that would be a negative for me. Definitily Red is the best handicapped horse in the race (10lb well in) but just checked and only had 9 starts over fences so as with Ucello Conti that would be a worry. Also his wins this season have all been in quite small fields (11 at most) so just wonder if combination of his age and lack of experience of this type of race may count against him ?



On YouTube, type in racing post and there's a recent upload of Phil smith(yesterday or day before) talking about a few of the horses mentioned above, and thought it was an interesting one check it out let me no what you think fella

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#10 2017-03-23 18:22:43

certainty
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Re: AINTREE GRAND NATIONAL TRENDS 2017

Interesting stuff jh, quite a few well in this year although he's wrong about Silver Birch ! Only came second in the Cross Country before winning National and wasn't 10lb well in. I remember because I backed him at 33/1 !

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#11 2017-03-23 18:43:57

oddspundit
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Re: AINTREE GRAND NATIONAL TRENDS 2017

RAZ DE MAREE. Forget ages if it turns up SOFT. Horse is in rude health at the minute.


All roads lead to Aintree for Raz De Maree following his return to action at Thurles last week, where the Cork Grand National winner was runner-up in a handicap hurdle.

Trainer Gavin Cromwell was pleased with that effort, his first since finishing runner-up to Native River in the Welsh Grand National.

Cromwell will now prepare the 12-year-old for the National, with Raz De Maree just needing a handful of horses to come out for him to make the cut for the 40-runner field.

"He's very good. That's him done now. He won't run again before Aintree," said the Meath handler. "The way he travelled was good and it's the Grand National next for him."

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#12 2017-03-23 20:04:01

jh2103
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Re: AINTREE GRAND NATIONAL TRENDS 2017

certainty wrote:


Interesting stuff jh, quite a few well in this year although he's wrong about Silver Birch ! Only came second in the Cross Country before winning National and wasn't 10lb well in. I remember because I backed him at 33/1 !


Cheers for clarifying silver birch quotes,
Will be interesting to see how the "well in" horses perform as you said quite afew of them this year.

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#13 2017-03-25 11:59:33

bristoldoug
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Re: AINTREE GRAND NATIONAL TRENDS 2017

Great preview and stats !
I'm taking the view that this years national is not as good in terms of quality as in recent years. Yes there are lots of horses rated higher than previous nationals and the bottom weight will carry 10.7 in what in effect will be quite a compressed handicap. It looks ripe for a 50/1 shot to win again this year.
That said I'm on Blaklion at 33/1 but suspect he may get outstayed on the run in by something.also on Saint Are at 50/1, Houblon Des Obeaux at 66/1 and O"Fairlions Boy at 66/1 but the latter has shown no form this year.
I'm thinking the value has gone on most of the runners at the head of the market, but hoping Ucello Conti drifts a bit in the next few days as can still see some value there at 20/1 or better.
Of the rest If he were to get in I think Gas Line Boy at 100/1 is interesting. He fell at the 1st 2 years ago but has improved a lot since. Needs 4 to come out though. Thunder and Roses, Maggio, Raz De Maree and Pendra look worth a second look as well. I know the last 2 have finished unplaced in this before - but suspicion is that form is better this time around.
So that's a few speculative darts.

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#14 2017-03-25 22:20:50

stu3105
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Re: AINTREE GRAND NATIONAL TRENDS 2017

bristoldoug wrote:


Great preview and stats !

I'm taking the view that this years national is not as good in terms of quality as in recent years. Yes there are lots of horses rated higher than previous nationals and the bottom weight will carry 10.7 in what in effect will be quite a compressed handicap. It looks ripe for a 50/1 shot to win again this year.

That said I'm on Blaklion at 33/1 but suspect he may get outstayed on the run in by something.also on Saint Are at 50/1, Houblon Des Obeaux at 66/1 and O"Fairlions Boy at 66/1 but the latter has shown no form this year.

I'm thinking the value has gone on most of the runners at the head of the market, but hoping Ucello Conti drifts a bit in the next few days as can still see some value there at 20/1 or better.

Of the rest If he were to get in I think Gas Line Boy at 100/1 is interesting. He fell at the 1st 2 years ago but has improved a lot since. Needs 4 to come out though. Thunder and Roses, Maggio, Raz De Maree and Pendra look worth a second look as well. I know the last 2 have finished unplaced in this before - but suspicion is that form is better this time around.

So that's a few speculative darts.
I'm all over Pendra at around the 50/1 Mark Mate, Not saying he'll Win but I believe he's a cracking E/W Bet in a very open National 25/1 shots and over seem to have the best record in recent Runnings so definitely not being put off by anything at those prices as long as the right type of profile, Therefore Pendra standsout a lot on that score as he's an Irish Bred 9 year old who has form in the National and did infact run an absolute cracker at Cheltenham in the Kim Muir under Top Weight after a long layoff, Sunnyhillboy Won the Kim Muir before being narrowly denied in the National a few Weeks later, he too was Bred by Old Vic who has Sired more recent Winners and Placed Horses in this than any other, he has the experience,has the Form to be competitive in a Race like this and he looks to carry similar Weight to last year, he should have no problem getting a Run, all being well he'll line up and take his chance and like I said at 50/1 12/1 a Place he looks the Best Value in the Race imo!!  I can't see him finishing out of the first 4 this Year and some firms will go 5 or even 6 places which makes him appeal even more, as long as he can get a clear round of course he 'll be bang there this time I reckon. I shall be having £40 E/W 50/1

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#15 2017-03-26 02:22:27

keano
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Re: AINTREE GRAND NATIONAL TRENDS 2017

Blaklion ticks a lot of boxes and Twiston-Davies knows how to ready one for this, I'd just like to see his stable form take an upward turn over next couple of weeks

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#16 2017-03-26 11:42:49

jocser
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Re: AINTREE GRAND NATIONAL TRENDS 2017


I know Ted has said pref is for Irish National w Foxrock but if allowed take his chance here the 25s will seem like a v distant memory. will go off in single figures if he lines up here IMO (unlikely and all as that is)
Otherwise think Fergal OBrien could have a say w PC, although do like the look of Pendras run at Chelts where Charlie has a rotten record which could be forgotten if Pendra  gets around Aintree.
final one for my shortlist is Knock House for yard that knows how to win this

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#17 2017-03-27 20:50:55

bob conlon
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Re: AINTREE GRAND NATIONAL TRENDS 2017

                            Just A Par 40/1.... €5 e/way nrnb...


                     Ballynagour 50/1..... €5 e/way nrnb....




                    I will do these R.F.C as well on the day..




                   Dead heat would be lovely.. but either one will do as it
                   really is a lottery.. anyhow I am very happy no one 
                   is on these as I like being an outsider!!! never was one
                   to follow the rest..   if Ballynagour puts in an 
                   effort that saw him nearly beat S.Conte..also in 2014
                   he had some very decent form behind very good 
                          horses.. Just A Par might just " Master" those famous
                   old fences and give me a nice run for my money!!


                   Best of luck...

Last edited by bob conlon (2017-03-27 20:51:34)

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#18 2017-03-30 11:06:43

doolittle
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Re: AINTREE GRAND NATIONAL TRENDS 2017

bristoldoug wrote:


Great preview and stats !

I'm taking the view that this years national is not as good in terms of quality as in recent years. Yes there are lots of horses rated higher than previous nationals and the bottom weight will carry 10.7 in what in effect will be quite a compressed handicap. It looks ripe for a 50/1 shot to win again this year.

That said I'm on Blaklion at 33/1 but suspect he may get outstayed on the run in by something.also on Saint Are at 50/1, Houblon Des Obeaux at 66/1 and O"Fairlions Boy at 66/1 but the latter has shown no form this year.

I'm thinking the value has gone on most of the runners at the head of the market, but hoping Ucello Conti drifts a bit in the next few days as can still see some value there at 20/1 or better.

Of the rest If he were to get in I think Gas Line Boy at 100/1 is interesting. He fell at the 1st 2 years ago but has improved a lot since. Needs 4 to come out though. Thunder and Roses, Maggio, Raz De Maree and Pendra look worth a second look as well. I know the last 2 have finished unplaced in this before - but suspicion is that form is better this time around.

So that's a few speculative darts.


Looking at Saint Are today meself. I too have had a couple of small bets on Houblon Des Obeaux to go with my previous on Highland Lodge. Agree with Gas Line Boy & Pendra too.
Lord Windermere is the big ? for me at the moment. 14lb lower than when he run in the race won by Many Clouds but recent form uninspiring but he is a Gold Cup winner & he will get the ground unless we have a huge deluge over the next 10 days!
At 50s I think he's worth a poke. 0

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#19 2017-03-30 14:23:58

bob conlon
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Re: AINTREE GRAND NATIONAL TRENDS 2017

I just read a piece on Highland Lodge.. and I am not one of those people who have him backed at 50/1, 33/1.. 25/1.. but upon reading the story that Mr Moffat gave to ATR..
 I hope he goes and wins it.. there is an old saying in racing when you lose a horse...
" it's outside the door"  meaning.. I guess you can always go and buy another horse.. but with a loved one.. there is only one of them.. and all our cherished loved ones are priceless..  so for the owners of Highland Lodge I hope he goes out there and eats up those fences and wins the big one for your Son R.I.P..  it must be heartbreaking to lose a child of any age never mind in their teen's.. so I hope he does you proud.. as we have seen in the past National Hunt racing always has a story bigger than the race.. last year we had the most emotional scene's with Mouse Morris in tears proclaiming his Son " was looking down on us" form the heavens..  only the coldest hearts would not melt upon seeing the pride and love in that Man's eyes.. amazing to win 2 nationals within the space of a week..


So I guess I will jump on the band wagon and back him.. as I would truly love to see this old horse go and bring the house down.. in National Hunt racing anything is possible.. the wildest of dreams can come true.. and your worst nightmares can become a reality..


I hope on the 8th of April at around 17.34 Highland Lodge comes home on his own with the rest a distance behind.. ( Just A Par 2nd, Ballynagour 3rd ) as it would go some way to ease the pain of your loss.. it may just be written in the stars... I wish you well!!

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#20 2017-03-30 21:02:50

baazzaa
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Join Date: 2010-06-10
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Re: AINTREE GRAND NATIONAL TRENDS 2017

I haven't looked at this much but one for arthur looks like a horse thats been kept for this for a long time. Looks like he will stay all day
And is progressive so improvement to come. If there some soft on the going I'd reckon he will like up.

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#21 2017-04-02 19:57:59

certainty
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Re: AINTREE GRAND NATIONAL TRENDS 2017

Well, only a week to go and the weather forecast looks decent for Aintree next weekend with presumably good ground for the National which should favour the better quality horses and go against some of those who have thrived on winter ground and whose handicap rating is based on runs on soft or good to soft. For me it would be a negative for Definitely Red who's only run on good ground was also his worst ever performance.

The more I look at this year's race the more I fancy the chances of Saphir du Rheu. Paul Nicholls once compared him to Kauto Star and though he's never going to be that good he does have a touch of class and has always looked capable of winning a big race one day. He's 6lb well in here meaning he should be joint top weight off a rating of 162 but when he won the Novices Chase at Aintree in 2015 he was rated 168, and in this field only Carlingford Lough has ever been rated higher than that. Apart from an early fall in the Hennesey he has improved with every race this season and arguably should be a single figure favourite on his fifth in the Gold Cup, yet he's still 20/1 which to me looks like a great price.

As well as that run at Cheltenham what's really swung me towards Saphir is watching the video of 2015's Hennesey where he carried top weight as a six year old on soft ground but still finished fourth, only fading in the last couple of furlongs. That was an exceptional performance in what is a very good trial race for both the National and Gold Cup with the likes of Bobs Worth, Hedgehunter, Many Clouds, Denman, Royal Auclair, Whats Up Boys, Native River and others all running well at Newbury before going onto win or place in those races.

I don't have much doubt about Saphir staying 4m on good ground but he can make lazy mistakes early in his races so for that reason I've had 25 quid ew at 20/1 (nrnb, five places with bet365) and will have another 25ew in running if he's still going after the eighth fence.

Will have another few small ew and place bets on the day but that's where my main cash is going !

Last edited by certainty (2017-04-02 20:02:21)

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#22 2017-04-03 12:16:26

cancy84
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Re: AINTREE GRAND NATIONAL TRENDS 2017

Two for me

Lord windermere 50/1 e way
Measureofmydreams 50/1 e way

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#23 2017-04-03 13:44:23

the snail
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Join Date: 2014-12-04
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Re: AINTREE GRAND NATIONAL TRENDS 2017

two for me in Blacklion and  Bishops Road.


Both with connections to the National (Trainer for Blacklion, owner for Bishops Road).


Kerry Lee has been impressive with training horses for specific races and has hopefully sorted out the jumping errors at the end of last season / beginning of this and they obviously fancy its chances over the fences having entered it last year and running in the Topham. The fall at the first in that is a bit of a concern but if there was lasting damage (I hope) they wouldn't be trying again. Probably at its best in softer conditions than likely to yet, but I always think with ground concerns owners and trainers will pull horses out rather than run (especially relative youngsters who will have every chance of running again in the future) so I'm happy enough if it is declared on the day. Only concern is it tends to run off the pace which isn't ideal with the inevitable incidents in front but EW 66/1 staying on late is good enough for me!


Blaklion has been prepared for this race nicely and as people have already said NTD has strong connections with this race. The good conditions should favour him if the distance is a push. For a horse with the talent to potentially be at the top of the weights in years to come I think they are striking now, even if some may consider 8 to be on the young side for this race.

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#24 2017-04-04 21:42:54

pickettspickles
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Join Date: 2014-11-09
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Re: AINTREE GRAND NATIONAL TRENDS 2017

Very open race, and now with the easier fences anything can win just look at last years result.
I actually backed Rule the world in every race apart from the National,one day i might get on the subject of why do you change your mind and go with something diffrent.


I done it again on Saturday with Bravery. So even with a question mark on the ground,i have to stay with BISHOPS ROAD 66/1 NRNB.Will.Hill.



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#25 2017-04-05 20:02:57

stu3105
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Join Date: 2013-03-25
Posts: 1604

Re: AINTREE GRAND NATIONAL TRENDS 2017

the snail wrote:


two for me in Blacklion and  Bishops Road.


Both with connections to the National (Trainer for Blacklion, owner for Bishops Road).


Kerry Lee has been impressive with training horses for specific races and has hopefully sorted out the jumping errors at the end of last season / beginning of this and they obviously fancy its chances over the fences having entered it last year and running in the Topham. The fall at the first in that is a bit of a concern but if there was lasting damage (I hope) they wouldn't be trying again. Probably at its best in softer conditions than likely to yet, but I always think with ground concerns owners and trainers will pull horses out rather than run (especially relative youngsters who will have every chance of running again in the future) so I'm happy enough if it is declared on the day. Only concern is it tends to run off the pace which isn't ideal with the inevitable incidents in front but EW 66/1 staying on late is good enough for me!


Blaklion has been prepared for this race nicely and as people have already said NTD has strong connections with this race. The good conditions should favour him if the distance is a push. For a horse with the talent to potentially be at the top of the weights in years to come I think they are striking now, even if some may consider 8 to be on the young side for this race.

I agree about Blacklion Mate, another confidence booster is the fact that the Trends state that all previous 8 Yr old Winners all Finished in the first 5 in that same Seasons Hennessy Gold Cup and Blaclion managed exactly that finishing 5th behind Native River 0 He could be the 1 to Beat I think and at 14/1 he looks a very solid E/W Bet imo 0 Best of luck Mate!!

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