RaceCaller Forum

Always at the races

You are not logged in.

#1 2017-07-14 13:21:33

racecaller
Administrator
Join Date: 2007-07-05
Posts: 8426

BUNBURY CUP HANDICAP TRENDS 2017

The big betting handicap on the final day of Newmarket’s July meeting is the Bet365 Bunbury Cup. It is run over 7 furlongs for horses aged 3 or older and as always will be highly competitive affair. Horses that tend to lead or race prominently have done well in this recently and horses aged 4 to 6 have took the last 10 renewals.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

 

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

3yo: 0-0-4

4yo: 4-14-58

5yo: 4-9-48

6yo: 2-3-36

7yo+:0-3-29

No very strong trends on ages. 3 of 4 winners aged 4 had posted an RPR of 101+ when finishing in first 3 in a class 2 or 3 handicap on their previous start.

The last 10 winners were aged 4 to 6.

 

Weights

Horses carrying 9-7 or more: 3-4-39

Horses carrying 9-0 to 9-6: 6-16-106

Horses carrying 8-7 to 8-13: 1-9-44

Horses carrying 8-0 to 8-6: 0-0-4

 

Official Ratings

Horses rated 100 or more: 3-10-69

Horses rated 90 to 99: 7-18-105

Horses rated 89 or lower: 0-1-7

 

Recent/Past Form

10 of 10 winners had run 3 to 6 times that year

5 of 10 winners won or placed last time out (4 of 5 exceptions unplaced in a big Royal Ascot handicap)

10 of 10 winners previously posted an RPR of 102 or higher

10 of 10 winners had run in past 40 days

9 of 10 winners had previously won over 7F

10 of 10 winners had previously won a handicap

8 of 10 winners gained their highest grade win at class 2

Only 1 of 10 winners had won above class 2

8 of 10 winners (last 6) had won a race worth £12K previously

 

Other Races

Previous year's winner: 1053 (1-1-4)

Victoria Cup winner: 005 (0-0-3)

Record of horses placed in Victoria Cup: 0704071810581593(2-3-16)

Challenge Cup winner: 919 (1-0-3)

BBAG-Sales.de.German Bloodstock Sales Stakes winner: 5619 (1-0-4) Nmk 8 Aug 7f c2

Trainers

Richard Fahey (3-3-13) trained the winner in 2011, 2014 & 2015

David Elsworth (1-0-2)

Jamie Osborne (1-1-4)

Mark Johnston (1-2-5)

Racing Style

5 of 10 winners led or raced prominently

3 of 10 winners raced in midfield

2 of 10 winners were held up towards rear

 

Draw

Horses drawn in 1 to 7: 5-10-70

Horses drawn 8 to 14: 2-15-69

Horses drawn 15 or higher: 3-4-35

Price

7 of 10 winners were priced between 10/1 & 16/1.

Favourites (2-2-12) have won just 2 of the last 10,

 

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

- Aged 4 to 6 (or placed in last year’s race)

- Carrying 9-0+

- Officially rated 96 to 102

- Won or placed last time out (or unplaced at Royal Ascot)

- Previously posted an RPR of 102 or higher

- Ran in last 40 days

- Run 3 to 6 times in 2017

- Won at class 2 level (but no higher)

- Won over 7F

- Ran in Lincoln and/or Royal Hunt Cup in 2017

- Ran in 888sport Stakes, International Stakes and/or Challenge Cup in 2017

- Tends to lead or race prominently

- Drawn in bottom or top 7 stalls

- Trained by Richard Fahey 

Offline

 

#2 2017-07-15 09:10:10

broadway
Forum Pro
Join Date: 2013-10-10
Posts: 1453

Re: BUNBURY CUP HANDICAP TRENDS 2017


Maybe a low draw will prove best this year and given that prominent runners have a decent record ew 25/1 Sutter County and ew 18/1 Robero .


3 year olds seldom run in this but Mr Johnston is a bit like that Irish National Hunt trainer for turning over statistics, SC had an impossible ask but was there at the furlong in the Jersey Stakes and this looks to be his trip. Buick rode it once as a two year old and won on it at Newmarket and is up today. Robero keeps on defying the handicapper since being gelded likes to be up on the pace and won on its only course and distance run.

Offline

 

#3 2017-07-15 13:22:35

little rossi
Forum Pro
Join Date: 2017-03-26
Posts: 302

Re: BUNBURY CUP HANDICAP TRENDS 2017

I ummed & aahhgghheed with 4 in this & in the end didn't bother backing any so knowing my luck they'll fill the 1st 4 places.
I went Newmarket Thursday had a nice day but my wallet didn't, Spring Cosmos only winner on day whereas Friday managed to find 5/8 winners yet only bet on 1 of those Being There in Luck 15.
4 here.
Tashweeq CD winner, ran good 2nd Ascot back 1f in trip today.
Steady Pace 2 nd in Wokingham up 1f should suit.
Mutawathea 3rd in this 12 months ago, promising York run LTO but not won for 2 years.
Gossiping Much improved this season hold up horse who finishes fast but stable in poor form.

Good luck to those having a punt.

Offline

 

Board footer

Powered by PunBB
© Copyright 2002–2008 PunBB

Message to