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#1 2017-10-09 17:51:43

certainty
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Join Date: 2017-01-20
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Cesarewitch Handicap, Saturday October 14th

Last really big handicap of flat season, these are racecallers trends from last year in case we don't get any this time around. The 2016 winner was 4yo Sweet Selection who carried 8.08 and went off at 7/1. He was drawn 23 and had been 5th in Doncaster Cup on previous run. Alan King had the 2nd at 50/1 to continue his good record in the race

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

3yo: 1-2-12

4yo: 3-8-101

5yo: 0-6-71

6yo: 2-8-62

7yo: 2-5-50

8yo+: 2-1-31

Horses aged 3 to 5: 4-16-183

Horses aged 6 or older: 6-14-143

Weights

Horses carrying 9-7 or more: 1-4-23

Horses carrying 9-0 to 9-6: 2-8-71

Horses carrying 8-7 to 8-13: 4-12-102

Horses carrying 8-0 to 8-6: 2-5-96

Horses carrying 7-7 to 7-13: 1-1-32

Horses carrying 7-6 or less: 0-0-3

No very strong trend to be gleaned from the weights.

Top Weight: 00590418602 (1-2-11)

Horses carrying a penalty (1-5-43) don’t have a great record with just 6 of 43 runners making the frame, though they did fill the 1st & 3rd in 2011 and runners-up spot in 2012.

Official Ratings

Horses rated 99 to 109: 1-8-36

Horses rated 87 to 98: 8-17-185

Horses rated 76 to 86: 1-5-106

8 of 10 winners were officially rated 87 to 98.

Recent/Past Form

8 of 10 winners finished in the first 4 on their last flat start (1 exception 6th in listed race)

9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 91+ last time

5 of 10 winners posted a career high flat RPR on last flat start

10 of 10 winners ran at class 3 or higher last time out

10 of 10 winners had run at least 3 times that year (flat or hurdles)

8 of 10 winners had won a class 2 or 3 handicap (1 exception beaten a neck in a class 2 handicap last time)

7 of 10 winners had previously run in 4 to 11 flat handicaps

10 of 10 winners had won no more than 4 handicaps

9 of 10 winners had won a race over 2M+ (flat or hurdles)

6 of 10 winners had run at listed or group level (1 exception had won a grade 1 hurdle)

5 of 10 winners had previously won over hurdles (since 2000, 6 winners had run at the Cheltenham Festival that year)

Other Races

Previous season's winner (Grumeti): 5 (0-0-1)

John Guest Brown Jack Stakes winner (Sea Of Heaven): 0801000 (1-0-7)

John Smith's Stayers' Handicap winner (Magic Circle): 0 (0-0-1)

Ascot Stakes winner (Jennies Jewel): 0000 (0-0-4)

Goodwood Stakes winner (Star Rider): 0000 (0-0-4)

3 of 10 winners ran in the Northumberland Plate, finishing 080

3 of 10 winners ran in previous Cesarewitch, finishing 270

3 of 10 winners ran in John Guest Brown Jack Stakes, finishing 512

2 of 10 winners ran in Doncaster Cup, finishing 29

2 of 10 winners ran in the Ascot Stakes, finishing 43

2 of 10 winners ran in the Shergar Cup Stayers handicap, finishing 14

Trainers

Tony Martin (1-3-9) won this in 2007 and seen 4 of his other 8 runners make the first 5.

Mark Johnston (1-2-17) trained the 16/1 winner in 2004 & 66/1 winner in 2013 and also saddled runner-up in 2015.

Alan King (1-0-2), Jamie Osbourne (1-0-4) & David Simcock (1-0-4) trained a 3yo, Darley Sun, to win this in 2009.

David Pipe (0-2-13) has filled 2 placed in past 10 runnings.

Willie Mullins (0-1-2) has seen his last 3 runners since 2000 finish 4th-5th-4th.

Trainers who were predominantly focused on NH have won 8 of the 16 runnings since 2000 (Martin Pipe X 2, Nicky Henderson X 2, Philip Hobbs X 2, Alan King & Tony Martin).

Irish-trained runners (1-6-24) have made the frame with 7 of 24 runners.

Draw

Horses drawn 1 to 12: 6-17-120

Horses drawn 13 to 24: 3-9-120

Horses drawn 25 or higher: 1-5-87

Surprisingly for a race run over 2M 2F, there is a draw bias towards horses drawn low with 8 of the last 13 winners begin drawn 1 to 12.

Horses drawn 1 to 5: 4-7-50. The bottom 5 stalls have produced 7 of last 15 winners and filled over a quarter of the places in past 10 years from just over 15% of the total runners.

Racing Style

5 of 5 winners on softer than good were held up in rear or mid division

3 of 5 winners on good ground raced prominently

2 of 5 winners on good ground raced in mid division

On faster ground horses ridden more prominently have been favoured but on softer ground it has paid to be held up.

Price

Outsiders have been the order of the day in recent years. 6 of the last 8 winners have gone off at 16/1 or bigger, including winners at 50/1 in 2008 & 2015 and 66/1 winners in 2012 & 2013.

Favourites (2-5-11) have won 2 of the last 10, giving a £1 level stakes profit of £1.00.

 

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#2 2017-10-12 13:02:45

the snail
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Join Date: 2014-12-04
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Re: Cesarewitch Handicap, Saturday October 14th

Love this betting challenge, if only for the conundrum set, very rarely the outcome! so many different lines of investigation to follow and with the mix of flat and jumps specialists its often very hard to pull formlines through.


Usually look for a flat performer, potential improver, ahead of the handicapper, aged 4, or an older jumps horse who has had a few spins on the flat this season.


that really doesn't narrow it down too much but I've whittled my own shortlist down to the following:


No. 2 - Magic Circle - Possibly too high in the weights, and not the best draw (although last year's winner provided that if you are good enough and get the luck then a high draw isn't a killer blow) but has run respectably in defeat in some big races. Also, everyone loves a story and for the apprentice Callum Rodriguez (taking a useful 3 off) to do the Ebor Cesarewitch double would be right up there for romance!


No. 7 - First Mohican - Ran admirably last year off a rating of 98 (runs off 97 this year but with Hollie Doyle only claiming 3 technically running off 1lb higher I believe) and while form is patchy at best that didn't stop a decent run twelve months ago. Drawn better and with a very able apprentice taking weight off it would be foolish to rule out a horse with such obvious race form.


No. 29 - Cape Caster - Evan Williams has said that he doesn't know much about flat racing but he has been told John Constable is well handicapped and should be entered.

Based on that there would be no reason to enter Cape Caster, who has bits and pieces of form which could offer hope but nothing concrete. A staying on 3rd in a 1m 4f Cls 3 race at Newmarket in 2014?! Therefore I can onlt conclude that this must be the most ridiculous PLOT, smoke and mirrors act of all time! Choo Choo, all aboard!


No. 32 - Withhold - Very lightly campaigned, but with Silvestre on-board looking for back to back wins and some interesting form figures from last year, he probably is an improver who could be anything in the same vein as last year's winner.


Bon Chance all!

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#3 2017-10-12 13:13:19

little rossi
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Join Date: 2017-03-26
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Re: Cesarewitch Handicap, Saturday October 14th

Have backed at 12/1 Lagostovegas William Hill 5th odd 8 places.

11 starts on flat 3 wins a 2nd & 3 thirds.

Rated 91 & running off 8-12.

Will choose couple more on day, don't think weather going to change much.

I backed N.Henderson's Carriocola I think it was called about 10 years ago with Eddie Ahern aboard & won this race at 50/1 my biggest sp winner ever.

Last edited by little rossi (2017-10-12 13:14:26)

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#4 2017-10-12 19:57:54

certainty
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Re: Cesarewitch Handicap, Saturday October 14th

Not too bothered by the draw so shortlist so far is:

London Prize
, Very progressive this season, 4/9 on the flat

LagostoVegas, Can't ignore the Mullins/Moore combo !

Euchen Glen, Unexposed at this distance, bit unlucky loser lto I thought

Duke Street, Good strike rate on flat, could be a dark horse for shrewd jumps trainer with good claimer riding.

Like those 8 places from WHill and Sky so will look again at their prices on Saturday.

GL rossi and snail with yours.

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#5 2017-10-12 20:06:25

little rossi
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Re: Cesarewitch Handicap, Saturday October 14th

certainty wrote:


Not too bothered by the draw so shortlist so far is:

London Prize
, Very progressive this season, 4/9 on the flat

LagostoVegas, Can't ignore the Mullins/Moore combo !

Euchen Glen, Unexposed at this distance, bit unlucky loser lto I thought

Duke Street, Good strike rate on flat, could be a dark horse for shrewd jumps trainer with good claimer riding.

Like those 8 places from WHill and Sky so will look again at their prices on Saturday.

GL rossi and snail with yours.


Have also done Duke Street 25/1 with Sky, missed the 33's, Dr. Newland goes well with his flat horses.
Shrewd of I. Jardine's has J. Gormley taking 7Lbs off, have backed & won with this one previously, trainer raids the south well, 20/1 William Hill, including Lagostovegas my 3. Good luck to all.

Last edited by little rossi (2017-10-12 20:07:01)

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#6 2017-10-12 22:20:37

the snail
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Join Date: 2014-12-04
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Re: Cesarewitch Handicap, Saturday October 14th

Very shrewd indeed!

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#7 2017-10-13 12:35:40

broadway
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Join Date: 2013-10-10
Posts: 1411

Re: Cesarewitch Handicap, Saturday October 14th


£20 ew 33/1 Rolling Maul (William Hill 1/5 8 places)Thanks to Mr Martin's non runner RM creeps into the race. RM has had only 4 goes on the flat but  ran a very decent OR 91 on its penultimate start on decent going over 2miles at Newmarket (July course) and is among the highest rated on RPR's. I ignore its last run in a total bog at Ffo. Stays 3 miles over hurdles so trip ought to be no issue and Peter Bowen went close with a similar type in Mr Ed.


In for a penny....couldn't resist Paddy Power 66/1 1/5 7 places yesterday £5 ew

Last edited by broadway (2017-10-14 10:26:42)

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#8 2017-10-13 13:50:21

pk75
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Join Date: 2010-02-01
Posts: 25658

Re: Cesarewitch Handicap, Saturday October 14th

Time To Study    Posted this up when won lto at Donny....Only 3yold in the race this year,  3yold stayers look a smart bunch this season, as shown by the quality of this years St Leger..    Time to Study has always been regarded as a Cup horse in the making by connections (was entered for the Group 2 Long Distance Cup), still very much progressing, and should be seen at his best next season..  This is what Charlie Johnston had to say prior to his 3.5L 5th place finish behind Statavarious at Royal Ascot    "Time To Study is a very nice horse. "In the days gone by of the Queen's Vase being run over two miles, you would think he would take a lot of beating. "Obviously this year it is over a mile and three-quarters so you may be taking on a different type of horse. "He is entered in that and we will also look at one of the mile-and-a-half handicaps.
"He is still lightly raced and is very progressive. He is going to be a cracking stayer as a four- and five-year-old."


The form of that Ascot race has worked out nicely too... 1st Stradivarius now rated 118 (just beat in St Leger).. 2nd  Count Octave now rated 111.  3rd  Secret Advisor rated 103.. 6th Desert Skyline now rated 112.. 8th  Face The Facts rated 104.. 


Fact this horse is very much expected to improve upped in trip, his mark of just 102 could prove very tasty..


14/1 EW





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#9 2017-10-13 20:44:48

greatpilsudski
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Re: Cesarewitch Handicap, Saturday October 14th

if you need more help in whittling this down,ive been keeping a check on big 50k + hcaps all season.


excluding 3yo only big hcaps,the horses that have run in a 50k + hcap but never won one have won the majority of these big open aged hcaps


only caspian prince who won his 3rd epsom dash and 4th big hcap overall as spoiled this stat 


those horses also who have never tried a big hcap also have failed to take a big hcap at first attempt ,only higher power and fastnet tempest defied the stat


these types of horse do represent the majority of the qualifiers probaly 2/3rds of the field but ive found it useful in elimating a lot of runners without much thought


so 36 runners can be broke into these 3 groups



type A = fun mac x6,magic circle x3,watersmeet x3,endless acres x1,first mohican x4,snow falcon x2,mirsaale x3,who dares wins x3,shrewd x7,london prize x1*,getback in paris x1,digeanta x5,oceane x1,lagostovegas x3,euchen glen x1,star rider x2,swamp fox x3,john constable x3*,poyle thomas x1,landsman x1,rolling maul x1* (21) x1 etc after there name is the ammount of times they have ran in a big hcap without winning one.


type B = laws of spin (once) tawdeea (once) time to study (once) (3) once after there name is the ammount of times in there career they have won a big hcap.


type C = byron flyer 39k*,swashbuckle 22k,dubai fifty w23k,taws 31k,frederic 31k,duke street 43k*,cape caster 13k,arthur mc bride 31k,withhold 7k,fright night light 21k,aurora gray 31k,percy veer 31k (12)  figuer after there name is the highest value they have ran in.


* means they ran in 50k plus handicap over jumps if not on the flat.


so 15 runners (type B and C)unlikey to win this although this still leaves 21!!!!


i cant get a handle of the ammount of time a horse runs in one to be any significent ,i was hoping those with many runs in big hcaps without winning would be low but master of the world ran in 8 before finally winning and also line of reason took 7 goes.


i personally like to see 5 runs or less in big hcaps ,but this will only rule out a further 2 leaving 19


another handle is the owners ,godolphin have won 4 big hcaps this season inc first nation today.


all the other big hcaps have been won by different owners,its nice pay day for lesser owners and would sort the bills out for the season at least with just one good win.


magic circle for example is A type horse so in the highly likley group to take this,but its owners mr amd mrs davis aykroyd have already won a big hcap this season ,in fact today brinham rocks at york.theres no reason why they cant win another with a different horse but its just another thing ive noticed about these big hcaps.


good luck

Last edited by greatpilsudski (2017-10-13 20:45:24)

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#10 2017-10-14 05:52:55

the sun the sea
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Join Date: 2017-09-14
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Re: Cesarewitch Handicap, Saturday October 14th

Backed Misraale 100/1 and Cape Caster 150/1. Tenner each way on both. Good luck everyone

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#11 2017-10-14 14:48:41

certainty
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Join Date: 2017-01-20
Posts: 1014

Re: Cesarewitch Handicap, Saturday October 14th

Impossible race really but impossible to resist a punt. Ground looking good for time of year which I think could favour horses higher up the handicap so these are my ew punts:

Euchen Glen, 22/1 (4 places)

Endless Acres,
22/1 (6 places)

LagostoVegas, 14/1 (6 places)

ByronFlyer, 25/1 (4 places)

GL all !

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#12 2017-10-14 16:03:06

certainty
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Join Date: 2017-01-20
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Re: Cesarewitch Handicap, Saturday October 14th

little rossi wrote:


certainty wrote:


Not too bothered by the draw so shortlist so far is:

London Prize
, Very progressive this season, 4/9 on the flat

LagostoVegas, Can't ignore the Mullins/Moore combo !

Euchen Glen, Unexposed at this distance, bit unlucky loser lto I thought

Duke Street, Good strike rate on flat, could be a dark horse for shrewd jumps trainer with good claimer riding.

Like those 8 places from WHill and Sky so will look again at their prices on Saturday.

GL rossi and snail with yours.



Have also done Duke Street 25/1 with Sky, missed the 33's, Dr. Newland goes well with his flat horses.

Shrewd of I. Jardine's has J. Gormley taking 7Lbs off, have backed & won with this one previously, trainer raids the south well, 20/1 William Hill, including Lagostovegas my 3.

Good luck to all.
2/3 in first 8 rossi so well done and a profit there. Should have stuck to my original plan, 3/4 in first 8 ! Well done anyone who got on the gamble on the winner.

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#13 2017-10-14 16:13:07

the snail
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Join Date: 2014-12-04
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Re: Cesarewitch Handicap, Saturday October 14th

Top tipping across the lot! First three home between us and was nice to get on withhold before the big gamble came through! Conversely I'm more annoyed that cape caster didn't beat one more home for that magic 8th place....really looked like he would at one point!

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#14 2017-10-14 16:48:11

certainty
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Re: Cesarewitch Handicap, Saturday October 14th

the snail wrote:


Top tipping across the lot! First three home between us and was nice to get on withhold before the big gamble came through! Conversely I'm more annoyed that cape caster didn't beat one more home for that magic 8th place....really looked like he would at one point!
sorry snail, missed that you got the winner, well done mate

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#15 2017-10-14 16:54:52

little rossi
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Join Date: 2017-03-26
Posts: 197

Re: Cesarewitch Handicap, Saturday October 14th

certainty wrote:


little rossi wrote:


certainty wrote:


Not too bothered by the draw so shortlist so far is:

London Prize
, Very progressive this season, 4/9 on the flat

LagostoVegas, Can't ignore the Mullins/Moore combo !

Euchen Glen, Unexposed at this distance, bit unlucky loser lto I thought

Duke Street, Good strike rate on flat, could be a dark horse for shrewd jumps trainer with good claimer riding.

Like those 8 places from WHill and Sky so will look again at their prices on Saturday.

GL rossi and snail with yours.





Have also done Duke Street 25/1 with Sky, missed the 33's, Dr. Newland goes well with his flat horses.



Shrewd of I. Jardine's has J. Gormley taking 7Lbs off, have backed & won with this one previously, trainer raids the south well, 20/1 William Hill, including Lagostovegas my 3.



Good luck to all.
2/3 in first 8 rossi so well done and a profit there. Should have stuck to my original plan, 3/4 in first 8 ! Well done anyone who got on the gamble on the winner.




Cheers certainty, I got 33's for Duke Street sneaking 8th & always fancied Lagostovegas for a place disappointed with Shrewd have got River Icon York 5.00 25/1 Sky 5 places e/way.


Well done the snail, withhold won well.

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