RaceCaller Forum

Always at the races

You are not logged in.

#1 2017-01-11 01:04:55

racecaller
Administrator
Join Date: 2007-07-05
Posts: 8425

CLASSIC CHASE TRENDS 2017

The Betfred Classic Chase, which takes place at Warwick on Saturday 14th January, is a grade 3 handicap chase run over 3M 5F and is generally a good test of a horse’s Grand National credentials.

 

Below we take a look at the trends for 10 runnings since 2005:

 

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

6yo: 0-0-3

7yo: 2-5-18

8yo: 2-7-29

9yo: 3-5-33

10yo: 2-1-24

11yo: 1-2-19

12yo+: 0-1-13

No strong trend on ages of winners.

 

Breeding

Irish bred: 5-11-81

French bred: 3-3-29

GB bred: 2-7-28

USA bred: 0-0-1

Irish bred runners have won 5 of the last 10 runnings, though they have represented around 58.3% of the total runners.

French bred horses aged 9 or younger have a record of 3-3-20 whereas those aged 10 or older have a record of 0-0-9.

Progeny of Brian Boru: 13 (1-1-2)

Progeny of Kayf Tara: 2651 (1-1-4)

Progeny of Visionary): 1PF (1-0-3)

Progeny of King's Theatre: 332U (0-3-4)

Progeny of Midnight Legend: 3P2 (0-2-3)

 

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)

Horses carrying 10-9 or more: 7-12-78

Horses carrying 10-8 or less: 3-9-61

Top weight: PB0P361523F4 (1-3-12)

 

Official Ratings

Horses rated 141 or higher: 2-4-25

Horses rated 129 to 140: 6-11-72

Horses rated 128 or lower: 2-6-42

There has been slight edge held by higher rated runners:

Horses rated 133 or higher: 7-14-73

Horses rated 132 or lower: 3-7-66

 

Recent/Past Form

8 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 on their last completed start (1 exception was 12th in Hennessy)

10 of 10 winners has posted an RPR of 132+ in 1 or both of last 2 completed starts

10 of 10 winners had run in past 50 days

7 of 10 winners had won a chase over 3M+ at a left handed track (3 exceptions posted highest RPR in 3M+ chase at LH track)

10 of 10 winners had run in 17 or fewer chases

8 of 10 winners had gained 1 to 3 previous chase wins

9 of 10 winners had run in 11 or fewer handicap chases

8 of 10 winners had won no more than 1 handicap chase

6 of 10 winners had contested a graded chase (1 exception had won a class 2 chase by a distance and another was runner-up in a grade 2 hurdle)

 

Other Races

Previous year's winner (Russe Blanc): 3 (0-1-1)

Sussex National winner (Morney Wing): 2 (0-1-1)

Weatherbys Private Bank Novice H'cap Chase winner (Vivaldi Collonges): 4 (0-0-1)

Haydock Grand National Trial winner (Bishops Road): P (0-0-1)

2 of 10 winners ran in Bet Victor Handicap Chase, finishing P4

2 of 10 winners ran in Welsh Grand National last time, finishing FP

2 of 10 winners ran in Ultima H'cap Chase at Cheltenham Festival, finishing 8P

 

Trainers

Paul Nicholls (3-0-8) won back to back runnings in 2006 & 2007 and also saddled the 2015 winner.

Alan King (2-3-10) has a fine record, having won 2 of last 7 and saddled runner-up in 2013 & 2016. 

Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-2-14) has had 1 win and 2 places from last 14 runners in this.

Colin Tizzard (1-1-3) trained the winner in 2012 & runner-up in 2015, while Emma Lavelle (1-1-3) saddled Shotgun Paddy to finish 1st & 3rd in 2014 & 2015.

Venetia Williams (1-1-11) has gained 1 win & 3 places from her last 15 runners.

Kerry Lee (1-0-1) won this with Russe Blanc in 2016, while her father, Richard’s, only 2 runners in this in last 10 years were 3rd & 4th in 2012.

 

Price

No very strong trend on the prices, with 7 of 10 winners priced between 9/2 & 11/1 and the other 3 going off at 14/1, 18/1 & 20/1.  

Favourites (1-3-11) have won just one running since 2000, giving a level stakes loss of 4.50 over past 10 renewals.

 

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 runnings you are looking for a horse:

- French bred aged 9 or younger

- Officially rated 133 or higher

- Finished in first 3 on last completed start in past 50 days

- Posted an RPR of 133+ in one or both of last 2 starts

- Won a chase over 3M+ at a left-handed track

- Previously won once or twice over fences

- Run in 11 or fewer handicap chases (winning no more than 1)

- Previously contested a graded chase

- Previously run in the Aintree, Welsh or Scottish Grand National

- Finished in first 4 in Bet Victor Handicap Chase

- Trained by Alan King, Paul Nicholls, Colin Tizzard or Kerry Lee

Offline

 

#2 2017-01-11 19:07:26

stu3105
Forum Pro
Join Date: 2013-03-25
Posts: 1614

Re: CLASSIC CHASE TRENDS 2017

competitive looking H'cap as always down at my Local Track, However I do have a decent record of finding the Winner in this Contest and there is one Horse this time that stands out more than any other in the Race and that is Regal Encore!!  He Ticks every single Box based on what the 10 Year Trends tell us  as he is a 9yr old who are marginally the best Age Group to follow imo although there isn't much bias to be honest but they have produced 3 Winners/ He's also an Irish Bred who also boast the Best Win Record in the Race with 5 Wins in last 10 Running's / No more than 17 Runs over Fences and only Winning between 1-3 Chases Regal Encore has Ran in 11 Chases Winning Twice/  Winning a Listed Chase is also a Good Positive in this which also bodes very well for my Selection as he did indeed Win a very hot Listed H'cap Chase at Ascot on his latest Run/ 10 from 10 Winners had all Won this within 50 Days between there previous Race/ 8 from 10 Winners had previously Finished in the first 3 Places in there most recent  Race before going on to Glory here, So again he clearly passes that Stat too having Won last time, I think he could have a bit more up his sleeve Running over this Longer Distance here for the First time should relish this Sharper Track compared to the likes of Cheltenham where he has Pulled on all 3 Runs in Chases over 3 miles plus, The Higher Rated/ Better Class Horses do tend to come out on time more recently in this compared to past Years so his Weight of 11-10lb doesn't put me off at all.  Regal Encore was much the Best of these over the Smaller obstacles and as long as he remains in better terms with himself after his Confidence Boosting Success at Ascot he will take all the Beating in this Grade 3/ Class 1 H'cap Chase!!  STAN JAMES are offering 10/1 and i'm all over that0  Looks Great Price  based on his Recent Form  0  LUMP ON LADS!!0  CERTAINTYYYYYYYYY!!!!!!!!!!

Offline

 

#3 2017-01-12 13:43:37

eachwayed
Forum Pro
Join Date: 2015-10-06
Posts: 841

Re: CLASSIC CHASE TRENDS 2017

Sego Success fell early on when favourite for this last year but had previously won well at Warwick and is generally a decent jumper and should have the stamina for 3m5f if the ground's not too bad. Ran ok on both starts this year but now only 1lb above last winning weight when he won well, Wayne Hutch back on board. No bet until the day but anything over 10/1 ew would do me.




Offline

 

#4 2017-01-12 17:37:14

stu3105
Forum Pro
Join Date: 2013-03-25
Posts: 1614

Re: CLASSIC CHASE TRENDS 2017

eachwayed wrote:


Sego Success fell early on when favourite for this last year but had previously won well at Warwick and is generally a decent jumper and should have the stamina for 3m5f if the ground's not too bad. Ran ok on both starts this year but now only 1lb above last winning weight when he won well, Wayne Hutch back on board. No bet until the day but anything over 10/1 ew would do me.




Iv'e had a small Win Bet on him too took 12/1 last night,was supposed to be my Saver but was very sweet on Regal Encore for this and stupidly went and put £40 on him 0 been pulled out due to Run at Ascot next week instead gutted but that's the risk you take,should of waited like normal but really thought he would go for this, anyway probably have few more quid E/W this time on Sego Success and I shall have an E/W on Doctor Harper too.  Hoping Benny's King can get my Money back by winning the Lanzarotte Hurdle at Kempton! Fingers Crossed!  Best of luck mate

Offline

 

#5 2017-01-12 18:19:51

eachwayed
Forum Pro
Join Date: 2015-10-06
Posts: 841

Re: CLASSIC CHASE TRENDS 2017

Cheers stu and GL to you, I mostly avoid ante post this time of year as the ground can change so much from day to day. Hopefully Regal Encore will get your money back with interest another time.

Offline

 

#6 2017-01-13 06:10:24

frizzy_red_afro_man
Forum Pro
Join Date: 2014-11-25
Posts: 594

Re: CLASSIC CHASE TRENDS 2017

Fancy Shotgun Paddy for this myself, 10/1 will do for me! 

Best of luck folks,

Offline

 

#7 2017-01-13 09:31:43

coffeyken
Forum Novice
Join Date: 2010-01-21
Posts: 39

Re: CLASSIC CHASE TRENDS 2017

Doctor Harper for me in this. 

Offline

 

#8 2017-01-13 11:45:20

broadway
Forum Pro
Join Date: 2013-10-10
Posts: 1448

Re: CLASSIC CHASE TRENDS 2017


Taken 33/1 ew Kingswell Theatre (Wm Hill) I backed KT for the Welsh National after a very promising prep run in the Chepstow  National Trial. It lost a shoe last time which hopefully accounts for the disappointing run but Hawkes Point was also pulled up in the Welsh Nat before winning this race off 6 lbs lower. KT has been dropped 5 lbs since Chepstow. After only 8 chases there is hopefully more to come this season.


I expect Shotgun Paddy to run very well as his two runs at Warwick have been a win and a second in this race. He's very nicely handicapped now and ran a decent race at Cheltenham but would hope to get a bit better than 9/1 tomorrow. The going should suit.


And finally Jon Jo's Spookydooky 16/1 has the potential to win off his present mark and again should appreciate the much softer ground forecast after two runs on good ground.

Offline

 

#9 2017-01-13 12:40:54

eachwayed
Forum Pro
Join Date: 2015-10-06
Posts: 841

Re: CLASSIC CHASE TRENDS 2017

broadway wrote:



Taken 33/1 ew Kingswell Theatre (Wm Hill) I backed KT for the Welsh National after a very promising prep run in the Chepstow  National Trial. It lost a shoe last time which hopefully accounts for the disappointing run but Hawkes Point was also pulled up in the Welsh Nat before winning this race off 6 lbs lower. KT has been dropped 5 lbs since Chepstow. After only 8 chases there is hopefully more to come this season.


I expect Shotgun Paddy to run very well as his two runs at Warwick have been a win and a second in this race. He's very nicely handicapped now and ran a decent race at Cheltenham but would hope to get a bit better than 9/1 tomorrow. The going should suit.


And finally Jon Jo's Spookydooky 16/1 has the potential to win off his present mark and again should appreciate the much softer ground forecast after two runs on good ground.
Am also leaning towards Shotgun Paddy ew if ground turns soft and there are more than 16 runners. Very consistent in these sort of slogs and about time he was winning one again, also a bonus that he missed the Welsh National which takes a lot out of many horses. Hopefully there will be some 10/1 plus in the morning markets.

Offline

 

#10 2017-01-13 22:06:02

greatpilsudski
Forum Pro
Join Date: 2012-10-29
Posts: 994

Re: CLASSIC CHASE TRENDS 2017

milansbar stumbled on divet or something lto on the first bend that isnt in the formbook. that was before he made a bad early blunder so his welsh national run can be ignored,he ran a encouraging 4th over too short and ground too fast the time before,16-1 at 6 places ew skybet.

Offline

 

#11 2017-01-14 11:51:13

jacklawrence
Forum Pro
Join Date: 2013-04-04
Posts: 548

Re: CLASSIC CHASE TRENDS 2017

I fancy Spookydooky and Kaki De La Pree in this. Both are well handicapped on their best form. Spookydooky has been running on unsuitable ground all year and is now 10lbs lower than when 4th in the Midlands national, 11lbs lower than when 2nd in a decent Haydock race and 3lbs lower than his last winning mark.



Offline

 

Board footer

Powered by PunBB
© Copyright 2002–2008 PunBB

Message to