The Betfred Classic Chase, which takes place at Warwick on Saturday 14th January, is a grade 3 handicap chase run over 3M 5F and is generally a good test of a horse’s Grand National credentials.
Below we take a look at the trends for 10 runnings since 2005:
No strong trend on ages of winners.
Irish bred: 5-11-81
French bred: 3-3-29
GB bred: 2-7-28
USA bred: 0-0-1
Irish bred runners have won 5 of the last 10 runnings, though they have represented around 58.3% of the total runners.
French bred horses aged 9 or younger have a record of 3-3-20 whereas those aged 10 or older have a record of 0-0-9.
Progeny of Brian Boru: 13 (1-1-2)
Progeny of Kayf Tara: 2651 (1-1-4)
Progeny of Visionary): 1PF (1-0-3)
Progeny of King's Theatre: 332U (0-3-4)
Progeny of Midnight Legend: 3P2 (0-2-3)
Horses carrying 10-9 or more: 7-12-78
Horses carrying 10-8 or less: 3-9-61
Top weight: PB0P361523F4 (1-3-12)
Horses rated 141 or higher: 2-4-25
Horses rated 129 to 140: 6-11-72
Horses rated 128 or lower: 2-6-42
There has been slight edge held by higher rated runners:
Horses rated 133 or higher: 7-14-73
Horses rated 132 or lower: 3-7-66
8 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 on their last completed start (1 exception was 12th in Hennessy)
10 of 10 winners has posted an RPR of 132+ in 1 or both of last 2 completed starts
10 of 10 winners had run in past 50 days
7 of 10 winners had won a chase over 3M+ at a left handed track (3 exceptions posted highest RPR in 3M+ chase at LH track)
10 of 10 winners had run in 17 or fewer chases
8 of 10 winners had gained 1 to 3 previous chase wins
9 of 10 winners had run in 11 or fewer handicap chases
8 of 10 winners had won no more than 1 handicap chase
6 of 10 winners had contested a graded chase (1 exception had won a class 2 chase by a distance and another was runner-up in a grade 2 hurdle)
Previous year's winner (Russe Blanc): 3 (0-1-1)
Sussex National winner (Morney Wing): 2 (0-1-1)
Weatherbys Private Bank Novice H'cap Chase winner (Vivaldi Collonges): 4 (0-0-1)
Haydock Grand National Trial winner (Bishops Road): P (0-0-1)
2 of 10 winners ran in Bet Victor Handicap Chase, finishing P4
2 of 10 winners ran in Welsh Grand National last time, finishing FP
2 of 10 winners ran in Ultima H'cap Chase at Cheltenham Festival, finishing 8P
Paul Nicholls (3-0-8) won back to back runnings in 2006 & 2007 and also saddled the 2015 winner.
Alan King (2-3-10) has a fine record, having won 2 of last 7 and saddled runner-up in 2013 & 2016.
Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-2-14) has had 1 win and 2 places from last 14 runners in this.
Colin Tizzard (1-1-3) trained the winner in 2012 & runner-up in 2015, while Emma Lavelle (1-1-3) saddled Shotgun Paddy to finish 1st & 3rd in 2014 & 2015.
Venetia Williams (1-1-11) has gained 1 win & 3 places from her last 15 runners.
Kerry Lee (1-0-1) won this with Russe Blanc in 2016, while her father, Richard’s, only 2 runners in this in last 10 years were 3rd & 4th in 2012.
No very strong trend on the prices, with 7 of 10 winners priced between 9/2 & 11/1 and the other 3 going off at 14/1, 18/1 & 20/1.
Favourites (1-3-11) have won just one running since 2000, giving a level stakes loss of 4.50 over past 10 renewals.
Based on the trends from the past 10 runnings you are looking for a horse:
- French bred aged 9 or younger
- Officially rated 133 or higher
- Finished in first 3 on last completed start in past 50 days
- Posted an RPR of 133+ in one or both of last 2 starts
- Won a chase over 3M+ at a left-handed track
- Previously won once or twice over fences
- Run in 11 or fewer handicap chases (winning no more than 1)
- Previously contested a graded chase
- Previously run in the Aintree, Welsh or Scottish Grand National
- Finished in first 4 in Bet Victor Handicap Chase
- Trained by Alan King, Paul Nicholls, Colin Tizzard or Kerry Lee