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#1 2014-06-30 16:43:53

racecaller
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ECLIPSE STAKES TRENDS 2014

The Coral Eclipse Stakes takes place at Sandown on Saturday, 5th July. A group 1 run over 1M 2F, it is the first chance for the classic generation to take on the older horses at the highest level, though in recent years there have not been many takers from the 3yo ranks, though there looks as if there will be more 3yo contenders this year.

 

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

 

Age

3yo: 2-3-19

4yo: 4-10-31

5yo: 4-1-18

6yo+: 0-2-11

No strong trends on prices, though this race has not been won by horse aged over 5 in past 100 years.

Both 3yo winners were trained in Ireland & finished in first 4 in the 2000 Guineas.

7 of 8 winners aged 4+ ran at Royal Ascot last time.

 

Gender

Mares (0-0-5) have failed to fill a single place despite 3 of their 5 representatives in this being sent off 5/1 or shorter. Kooyonga (1992) & Pebbles (1985) have been the only 2 female winners of the race. Both were 4yos that finished in first 2 in the 1000 Guineas & Coronation Stakes as 3yos and were placed in the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes on previous start.

 

Recent/Past Form

10 of 10 winners achieved career highest RPR in last 3 starts

9 of 10 winners (last 8) posted an RPR of 120+ last time out

9 of 10 winners had run between 2 and 4 times that season

9 of 10 winners had run in past 30 days

7 of 10 winners had won over 1M 2F+ (3 exceptions ran in a 1M group 1 at Royal Ascot last time)

10 of 10 winner had won a group 1

8 of 10 winners finished 1st or 2nd in a group 1 that year (1 exception hadn't run that year)

6 of 10 winners were having their first course start (3 of 4 others were course winners)

Since 2000, 3 of 4 winners aged 3 had won a group 1 as a 2yo (exception had won a group 2 and not contested a group 1 as a juvenile)

 

Other Races

Record of horses that ran in the Derby: 2-3-13

Previous year's highest finisher to return: 41137 (2-0-5)

Futurity Stakes winner (War Command): 1 (1-0-1)

2000 Guineas winner (Night Of Thunder): 1 (1-0-1)

Prince Of Wales' Stakes winner (The Fugue): 851 (1-0-3)

Racing Post Trophy winner (Kingston Hill): 22 (0-2-2)

York Stakes winner (Mukhadram): 3 (0-1-1)

Previous season's Dewhurst winner (War Command): 4 (0-0-1)

Previous season's Yorkshire Oaks winner (The Fugue): 4 (0-0-1)

Bet365 Mile winner (Tullius): 5 (0-0-1)

5 of 10 winners ran in Prince of Wales Stakes last time, finishing 43221

2 of 10 winners ran in Queen Anne Stakes last time, finishing 15

5 of 10 winners ran in the previous season's Champion Stakes, finishing 18015

3 of 10 winners ran in Tattersalls Gold Cup, finishing 111

2 of 10 winners ran in Gordon Richards Stakes, finishing 41

2 of 10 winners ran in Mooresbridge Stakes, finishing 61

2 of 10 winners ran in the Dubai Duty Free, finishing 81

2 of 2 winners aged 3 ran in the 2000 Guineas, finishing 41

2 of 2 winners aged 3 ran in the Epsom Derby, finishing 01

 

Trainers

Aidan O’Brien (3-3-15) has trained the winner 5 times since 2000.

Michael Stoute (1-4-11) has saddled 2 winners, 3 seconds and 2 thirds since 2000.

Saeed Bin Suroor (1-1-3) & John Gosden (1-1-5) each trained a winner and a placed finishers in past 10 years.

 

Price

10 of 10 winners have come from the first 4 in the betting

Only one winner since 2004 was sent off at odds of 8/1 or bigger.

Favourites (4-4-10) have supplied 4 of the last 5 winners however they show a level stakes loss of 1.26 over past 10 years.

 

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

Male aged 3 that finished in first 4 in 2000 Guineas & Derby & won a group 1 in 2013 or

Male aged 4 or 5 that finished first 5 at Royal Ascot last time

Had 2 to 4 runs this season

Run in last 30 days

Posted an RPR of 120+ last time

Had won a group 1

Finished in first 2 in a group 1 in 2014

Finished in first 5 in Queen Anne or Prince Of Wales last time

Ran in 2013 Champion Stakes at Ascot

Trained by Aidan O’Brien

From first 4 in the betting 

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#2 2014-06-30 21:12:01

jimpy
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Re: ECLIPSE STAKES TRENDS 2014

O'Brien for me whoever he runs , the fugue was a really good winner to but for me is to short at 9/4, I backed her at 10/1 at Ascot, that was some price.

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#3 2014-07-01 11:05:02

eoinmc
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Re: ECLIPSE STAKES TRENDS 2014

Entries for this, would have been nice to see Australia go for this but can't blame for taking such a soft touch at Curragh

1     46-022    Hillstar14    4    9-7    Sir Michael Stoute100         115    118    126
2     315-24    Mukhadram17      5    9-7    William Haggas71         120    112    130
3     1223-3    Trading Leather63      4    9-7    J S Bolger76         120    120    128
4    7-2124    Tullius18      6    9-7    Andrew Balding73    Jimmy Fortune     117    99    126
5    743-32    Verrazano18    4    9-7    A P O´Brien72         —    98    129
6     03077    Zambucca7      6    9-7    Gay Kelleway50         —    85    103
7     122-01    The Fugue17      5    9-4    John Gosden62    William Buick     123    119    137
8     111-82    Kingston Hill28    3    8-10    Roger Varian81    Andrea Atzeni     120    123    130
9     11-212    Night Of Thunder18    3    8-10    Richard Hannon66         109    116    131
10     29-537    Somewhat16    3    8-10    Mark Johnston67         109    92    113
11     21-137    True Story28    3    8-10    Saeed bin Suroor63         116    107    122
12     311-94    War Command18    3    8-10    A P O´Brien72         —    111    12

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#4 2014-07-01 13:38:36

wolfofcurragh
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Re: ECLIPSE STAKES TRENDS 2014

eoinmc wrote:


Entries for this, would have been nice to see Australia go for this but can't blame for taking such a soft touch at Curragh



Have to disagree about them being a "soft bunch" at the Curragh. There were 3 derby Trial winners in that race and it was no where near as soft as the media would have us believe. Australia is just a very very good horse. When Ballydoyle / Coolmoore win the Derby they always go straight to the Irish Derby when they can. After all it is another Classic and the Eclipse is a group 1. The horse is Irish bred, Irish trained, Irish owned and ridden by an Irish jockey  so of course the Irish Derby will be more important to them than the Eclipse!



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#5 2014-07-01 14:21:13

eoinmc
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Re: ECLIPSE STAKES TRENDS 2014

wolfofcurragh wrote:


eoinmc wrote:


Entries for this, would have been nice to see Australia go for this but can't blame for taking such a soft touch at Curragh


Have to disagree about them being a "soft bunch" at the Curragh. There were 3 derby Trial winners in that race and it was no where near as soft as the media would have us believe. Australia is just a very very good horse. When Ballydoyle / Coolmoore win the Derby they always go straight to the Irish Derby when they can. After all it is another Classic and the Eclipse is a group 1. The horse is Irish bred, Irish trained, Irish owned and ridden by an Irish jockey  so of course the Irish Derby will be more important to them than the Eclipse

There were only 4 rivals for Australia in the Irish Derby, 2 from his own yard. The pacemaker (a horse that had been unplaced in all previous runs in group class and was 10th in the Epsom Derby) finished 2nd. The Irish Derby trials this year were non high quality. If this year's Irish Derby turns out to be a stronger than average one, I'd hate to see what a weak one would look like.

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#6 2014-07-01 14:27:20

wolfofcurragh
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Re: ECLIPSE STAKES TRENDS 2014

eoinmc wrote:


wolfofcurragh wrote:


eoinmc wrote:


Entries for this, would have been nice to see Australia go for this but can't blame for taking such a soft touch at Curragh


Have to disagree about them being a "soft bunch" at the Curragh. There were 3 derby Trial winners in that race and it was no where near as soft as the media would have us believe. Australia is just a very very good horse. When Ballydoyle / Coolmoore win the Derby they always go straight to the Irish Derby when they can. After all it is another Classic and the Eclipse is a group 1. The horse is Irish bred, Irish trained, Irish owned and ridden by an Irish jockey  so of course the Irish Derby will be more important to them than the Eclipse

There were only 4 rivals for Australia in the Irish Derby, 2 from his own yard. The pacemaker (a horse that had been unplaced in all previous runs in group class and was 10th in the Epsom Derby) finished 2nd. The Irish Derby trials this year were non high quality. If this year's Irish Derby turns out to be a stronger than average one, I'd hate to see what a weak one would look like.
I never said it was stronger than average did I? I said it wasn't as weak as people would have you believe! Deby trials form is always sh*t on after the derby but people think it's so important before the Derby....Never understood that myself!    My point on the Eclipse is that when Coolmore never run Derby winners in it! They always go for the Irish Derby and this years "soft field" wasn't the reason they did this. They do it all the time.....Being an Irish Operation of course the Irish Derby would be far more important to them than the Eclipse!

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#7 2014-07-01 17:24:06

mylo
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Join Date: 2011-05-03
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Re: ECLIPSE STAKES TRENDS 2014

wolfofcurragh wrote:


eoinmc wrote:


wolfofcurragh wrote:


eoinmc wrote:


Entries for this, would have been nice to see Australia go for this but can't blame for taking such a soft touch at Curragh


Have to disagree about them being a "soft bunch" at the Curragh. There were 3 derby Trial winners in that race and it was no where near as soft as the media would have us believe. Australia is just a very very good horse. When Ballydoyle / Coolmoore win the Derby they always go straight to the Irish Derby when they can. After all it is another Classic and the Eclipse is a group 1. The horse is Irish bred, Irish trained, Irish owned and ridden by an Irish jockey  so of course the Irish Derby will be more important to them than the Eclipse

There were only 4 rivals for Australia in the Irish Derby, 2 from his own yard. The pacemaker (a horse that had been unplaced in all previous runs in group class and was 10th in the Epsom Derby) finished 2nd. The Irish Derby trials this year were non high quality. If this year's Irish Derby turns out to be a stronger than average one, I'd hate to see what a weak one would look like.
I never said it was stronger than average did I? I said it wasn't as weak as people would have you believe! Deby trials form is always sh*t on after the derby but people think it's so important before the Derby....Never understood that myself!    My point on the Eclipse is that when Coolmore never run Derby winners in it! They always go for the Irish Derby and this years "soft field" wasn't the reason they did this. They do it all the time.....Being an Irish Operation of course the Irish Derby would be far more important to them than the Eclipse!


Whichever view is taken on the form, the race not for the first time was a disaster for the sponsors, the paying public, the international recognition and by the sound of things will result in changes being made.

Putting things in language most of us understand.... A complete Joke as a group 1.

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#8 2014-07-01 17:39:40

wolfofcurragh
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Join Date: 2014-06-30
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Re: ECLIPSE STAKES TRENDS 2014

mylo wrote:


wolfofcurragh wrote:


eoinmc wrote:


wolfofcurragh wrote:


eoinmc wrote:


Entries for this, would have been nice to see Australia go for this but can't blame for taking such a soft touch at Curragh


Have to disagree about them being a "soft bunch" at the Curragh. There were 3 derby Trial winners in that race and it was no where near as soft as the media would have us believe. Australia is just a very very good horse. When Ballydoyle / Coolmoore win the Derby they always go straight to the Irish Derby when they can. After all it is another Classic and the Eclipse is a group 1. The horse is Irish bred, Irish trained, Irish owned and ridden by an Irish jockey  so of course the Irish Derby will be more important to them than the Eclipse

There were only 4 rivals for Australia in the Irish Derby, 2 from his own yard. The pacemaker (a horse that had been unplaced in all previous runs in group class and was 10th in the Epsom Derby) finished 2nd. The Irish Derby trials this year were non high quality. If this year's Irish Derby turns out to be a stronger than average one, I'd hate to see what a weak one would look like.
I never said it was stronger than average did I? I said it wasn't as weak as people would have you believe! Deby trials form is always sh*t on after the derby but people think it's so important before the Derby....Never understood that myself!    My point on the Eclipse is that when Coolmore never run Derby winners in it! They always go for the Irish Derby and this years "soft field" wasn't the reason they did this. They do it all the time.....Being an Irish Operation of course the Irish Derby would be far more important to them than the Eclipse!


Whichever view is taken on the form, the race not for the first time was a disaster for the sponsors, the paying public, the international recognition and by the sound of things will result in changes being made.

Putting things in language most of us understand.... A complete Joke as a group 1.

As I said before It wasn't as weak as people would have you believe. And it's not the Curraghs fault that Australia scared off any other foreign challengers.  Same happens a lot of years. Ballydoyle win the Derby and then nobody wants to take on their winner in the Irish Derby. 


I wonder why UK trainers don't send more horses to Ireland as the prize money is far higher than the UK for most races. But as a rule the standard of racing in Ireland is higher too.


If you want to talk about joke group 1's over the last 10 years have a look at the St. Leger fields at Doncaster. That race should be a group 3 at best now.

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#9 2014-07-02 00:20:48

deetee20
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Join Date: 2009-03-12
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Re: ECLIPSE STAKES TRENDS 2014

If Sandown gets a bit of rain then I would think 12/1 would be big about Kingston Hill, his 2nd to Australia in the Derby was a fine run and I don't think the drop to 1m2f will be a problem but g/f ground would be

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#10 2014-07-02 11:43:37

Re: ECLIPSE STAKES TRENDS 2014

deetee20 wrote:


If Sandown gets a bit of rain then I would think 12/1 would be big about Kingston Hill, his 2nd to Australia in the Derby was a fine run and I don't think the drop to 1m2f will be a problem but g/f ground would be

Would agree but can;t back it until declarations are confirmed as has to be a real chance he won't turn up

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#11 2014-07-02 14:17:56

mylo
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Join Date: 2011-05-03
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Re: ECLIPSE STAKES TRENDS 2014

hoof hearted wrote:


deetee20 wrote:


If Sandown gets a bit of rain then I would think 12/1 would be big about Kingston Hill, his 2nd to Australia in the Derby was a fine run and I don't think the drop to 1m2f will be a problem but g/f ground would be

Would agree but can;t back it until declarations are confirmed as has to be a real chance he won't turn up


Stood his ground so far and the 12/1 has vanished doesn't look like it will G.F. looking at the weather forecast. He is One of the likelier types towards the head of the market could be that The Fugue and Verazano would really need top of the ground to show their very best, War Command -straws and clutching are two words that spring to mind, Night Of Thunder- sound chance, Mukhadram -almost guaranteed to run better than last time so open enough really.

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#12 2014-07-03 10:37:45

keano
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Re: ECLIPSE STAKES TRENDS 2014

I thought Verrazano ran really well at Ascot in the Queen Anne, just didn't have the change of gears that Toronado had but was right with him all the way to the line and an extra quarter mile might just be the answer for him in this

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#13 2014-07-03 11:14:20

wolfofcurragh
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Re: ECLIPSE STAKES TRENDS 2014

keano wrote:


I thought Verrazano ran really well at Ascot in the Queen Anne, just didn't have the change of gears that Toronado had but was right with him all the way to the line and an extra quarter mile might just be the answer for him in this




I agree he did run well. Some people are questioning if he will get the 2 furlongs extra but he has won Group 1 races in the States over 9 furlongs and was running on at the end according to the RP. 11-2 looks a decent each way price.

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#14 2014-07-03 12:50:51

eoinmc
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Re: ECLIPSE STAKES TRENDS 2014

11 stand their ground in what looks one of the best Eclipses in years:

1 (10)     315-24    Mukhadram17      5    9-7    William Haggas65    Paul Hanagan     119    112    130
2 (5)     1223-3    Trading Leather63      4    9-7    J S Bolger78    Kevin Manning     119    120    128
3 (9)    7-2124    Tullius18      6    9-7    Andrew Balding63    Jimmy Fortune     117    99    126
4 (6)    743-32    Verrazano18    4    9-7    A P O´Brien76    Ryan Moore     120    98    129
5 (2)     03077    Zambucca7      6    9-7    Gay Kelleway43    David Probert     98    85    103
6 (1)     122-01    The Fugue17      5    9-4    John Gosden75    William Buick     124    119    137
7 (8)     111-82    Kingston Hill28    3    8-10    Roger Varian78    Frankie Dettori     120    123    130
8 (3)     11-212    Night Of Thunder18    3    8-10    Richard Hannon68    Richard Hughes     120    116    131
9 (11)     29-537    Somewhat16    3    8-10    Mark Johnston70    Franny Norton     102    92    113
10 (4)     21-137    True Story28 v1    3    8-10    Saeed bin Suroor50    Kieren Fallon     114    107    122
11 (7)     311-94    War Command18 p    3    8-10    A P O´Brien76    Seamie Heffernan     117    111    125

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#15 2014-07-03 12:53:41

the brigadier
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Re: ECLIPSE STAKES TRENDS 2014

Has Verrazano ever run in a race round a right-handed bend?


If yes then can someone tell me where and in which race?

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#16 2014-07-03 14:16:56

Re: ECLIPSE STAKES TRENDS 2014

the brigadier wrote:


Has Verrazano ever run in a race round a right-handed bend?


If yes then can someone tell me where and in which race?


Nearly certain he hasn't. As I understand it, it's all left handed in states and 2 runs over here were on straight miles

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#17 2014-07-03 16:21:12

stu3105
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Re: ECLIPSE STAKES TRENDS 2014

I may be totally wrong on this ,However my conclusion is that this Fascinating looking contest lies between 2 Horses, And they are Night Of Thunder and Verrazano!!                    I shall have a nice £40 Win on the first Named and a £20 Each-Way Bet on the Latter                                                                                                                                              All 3 Yr old Winners contested the 2,000 Guineas beforehand so that brings Night Of Thunder firmly into the reckoning imo and his 2nd behind Kingman was a fine effort in a more tactical and smaller field, The extra yardage should suit him really well also and he'll be hard to beat i feel.                                                                                                                  As for Verrazano 4 Yr olds have the best Win Record in this Race,As does his Trainer [ Aidan o' brien] The extra 2 Furlongs are just what he needs too imo, Had shown smart Form back in the U.S and his first 2 Starts in Britain so far have been of a very good standard also showing signs that he most certainly has a Big Day in him and will Win a Decent Prize before too long, Certainly sooner rather than later i would think and with a repeat of the current Form that he has shown and with the prospect of a little more improvement at the very least due to having a bit further to Run, He too should not be too far away at the Finish and can at least give Night Of Thunder something to think about.                                                                                                                                                      So there you have it!! That is my Summary of the 2014 Eclipse Stakes at Sandown Park            I believe by having Stakes on Each of the 2 Horses is the best way to go in terms of making some Profit on the Race!!                                                                                                                                            Good Luck People!!

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#18 2014-07-03 16:45:25

Re: ECLIPSE STAKES TRENDS 2014

Might as well wait until race time before having a bet,all depends how much of the forecast rain arrives,plenty,will suit Kingston Hill and not The Fugue, and vice versa if hardly any rain.


And if it is good to firm I think I'll back True Story.

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#19 2014-07-03 17:46:44

stu3105
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Re: ECLIPSE STAKES TRENDS 2014

alverton wrote:


Might as well wait until race time before having a bet,all depends how much of the forecast rain arrives,plenty,will suit Kingston Hill and not The Fugue, and vice versa if hardly any rain.


And if it is good to firm I think I'll back True Story.
I agree with what you say regarding any potential Rain,However i still feel that Night of Thunder is the Better Horse between himself and Kingston Hill and although Kingston Hill is undoubtedly a Better Horse on a Soft Surface Night of Thunder has already proved that he can act very well on both Surfaces [Fast and Soft] and has improved remarkably since Winning a 6 Furlong Maiden at Goodwood on his Debut and a 6 Furlong Listed Race at Doncaster on his 2nd Start, Add that to his Top Class Form this Season on a faster Surface and with the likely factor of the extra Distance for him  to Run at sure to suit him very well, He still looks the 1 to be on no matter what the Weather does as he has shown Top Top Form in Grade 1 Company more than once this Season and still looks like he has much more to give.                                                                                                                   Good Luck Alverton!!

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#20 2014-07-03 19:03:34

the brigadier
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Re: ECLIPSE STAKES TRENDS 2014

happyhammer wrote:


the brigadier wrote:


Has Verrazano ever run in a race round a right-handed bend?


If yes then can someone tell me where and in which race?


Nearly certain he hasn't. As I understand it, it's all left handed in states and 2 runs over here were on straight miles


That is precisely my point happyhammer. Thanks for the confirmation and good luck to those betting that Verrazano acts on the Sandown track at racing pace.

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#21 2014-07-03 20:13:10

stu3105
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Re: ECLIPSE STAKES TRENDS 2014

As already stated i have made no secret about the chances of Night Of Thunder and Verrazano, However if there were to be a surprise Winner or certainly a Forgotten Horse in the Race then i think you could do worse than chuck a few quid on the ever consistent TRADING LEATHER  who could Run the best of these very close if finally showing his true potential and building on the Best of his previous Form, Jim Bolger is most certainly no fool,he's as shrewd as they come,Therefore i'd be surprised if it turned out that he was just bringing Trading Leather over to Sandown just for a Day out.  At Odds of 20/1 he's well worth a Small Each-Way Wager for sure. I don't think The Fugue will Win and also i do not hold much hope for War Command/ Mukhadram/ True Story/ and i only give Kingston Hill a Place chance at very best and that's if he has his favored Soft Ground, as for the others they look like they are there just to make up the numbers so therefore there is definite room for Trading Leather to at least grab a Place, Certainly would not be the first time that Jim Bolger has Won a Grade 1 with an Outsider and this 10 Furlong Distance with a stiff Finish like Sandowns will suit him very very well i think, My other 2 main Fancies are trying the Distance for the first time so with the possibility that they may just get found out in the later stages of the Race on there first experience at the Trip then i think it makes sense to take a chance on something at a Price Each-Way just in case and Trading Leather fits the Bill perfectly imo!!                                                                                                                                             Good Luck everyone!!

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#22 2014-07-03 22:23:30

stu3105
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Re: ECLIPSE STAKES TRENDS 2014

deetee20 wrote:


If Sandown gets a bit of rain then I would think 12/1 would be big about Kingston Hill, his 2nd to Australia in the Derby was a fine run and I don't think the drop to 1m2f will be a problem but g/f ground would be
11/2 shot now bud!! value well gone now if there ever was any, still think he'll struggle against Night of Thunder who did actually Race on Soft Ground 2 times as a 2 Yr old and Won both times too so he won't be inconvenienced if there was any Rain and he has shown Top Form so far in Beating Kingman and playing 2nd best to that Rival twice also, Extra yardage should be just what he needs now i think,He'll be hard to beat for certain.

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#23 2014-07-03 22:31:07

mylo
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Re: ECLIPSE STAKES TRENDS 2014

stu3105 wrote:


As already stated i have made no secret about the chances of Night Of Thunder and Verrazano, However if there were to be a surprise Winner or certainly a Forgotten Horse in the Race then i think you could do worse than chuck a few quid on the ever consistent TRADING LEATHER  who could Run the best of these very close if finally showing his true potential and building on the Best of his previous Form, Jim Bolger is most certainly no fool,he's as shrewd as they come,Therefore i'd be surprised if it turned out that he was just bringing Trading Leather over to Sandown just for a Day out.  At Odds of 20/1 he's well worth a Small Each-Way Wager for sure. I don't think The Fugue will Win and also i do not hold much hope for War Command/ Mukhadram/ True Story/ and i only give Kingston Hill a Place chance at very best and that's if he has his favored Soft Ground, as for the others they look like they are there just to make up the numbers so therefore there is definite room for Trading Leather to at least grab a Place, Certainly would not be the first time that Jim Bolger has Won a Grade 1 with an Outsider and this 10 Furlong Distance with a stiff Finish like Sandowns will suit him very very well i think, My other 2 main Fancies are trying the Distance for the first time so with the possibility that they may just get found out in the later stages of the Race on there first experience at the Trip then i think it makes sense to take a chance on something at a Price Each-Way just in case and Trading Leather fits the Bill perfectly imo!!                                                                                                                                             Good Luck everyone!!


So stu you're going for just the 3 unless it rains in which case you would give Kingston Hill a good shout as well and Verazano is trying 1m 2f for the first time if we forget his 2 runs  at 1m2f........yep  with that.

Last edited by mylo (2014-07-03 22:32:34)

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#24 2014-07-04 20:36:43

Re: ECLIPSE STAKES TRENDS 2014

Kingston Hill likely to shorten further now Pricewise has stuck him up

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#25 2014-07-05 00:43:35

jimpy
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Join Date: 2010-07-08
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Re: ECLIPSE STAKES TRENDS 2014

Verrazano for me way overpriced, had a saver of Kingston hill.

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