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#1 2017-11-28 18:24:24

greg47
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Join Date: 2010-02-02
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Hennessy Gold Cup / Ladbroke

I think we can assume Racecaller has quit


From last year's Trends and adding in Native River and only counting 9's or 10's.


  • OR 145+
  • 0 or 1 run since June 1st
  • Won 3M+
  • 1st 3 last completed start
  • Run 3-14 times over fences
  • Won Class 2 or higher over fences
  • Won Chase left-handed track
  • Age 6-9


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#2 2017-11-28 21:05:56

certainty
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Join Date: 2017-01-20
Posts: 1108

Re: Hennessy Gold Cup / Ladbroke

Hello all, hope everyone is well, not punting much at mo but can't resist this great race.

These are trends from juicestorm website with the warning that I have found mistakes in their stats before.

14/15 – Aged 8 or younger

13/15 – Had won between 2-5 previous races over fences

13/15 – Had won a chase race over at least 3m before

12/15 – Had run at Newbury before (8 had won over fences there)

12/15 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting

12/15 – Carried 10-13 or more

12/15 – Finished in the first 3 last time out

11/15 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or more

11/15 – Aged either 6 or 7 years-old

11/15 – Had won a Grade 3 or better class chase race before

9/15 – Rated between 140 and 151

9/15 – Had a previous run that season

8/15 – Ran at either Aintree (2) or Cheltenham (6) last time out

8/15 – Won last time out

8/15 – Unplaced favourites

8/15 – Won by an Irish-bred horse

5/15 – Winning favourites (1 joint)

For me what really stands out in this race in recent years is the quality of the winners - Denman, Bobs Worth, Smad Place, Native River, Many Clouds, etc, which strongly suggests you need to be a very good improving staying chaser who is better than a handicapper.

The two who stand out this year are Total Recall and American and on balance and at the prices I will be with the latter. Total Recall bolted up in his first run for Mullins and could still be well handicapped off his new mark but Willie M has a poor record in UK handicaps and I think this race will be a much tougher test, ran at a strong pace on soft ground that will ask much more of his jumping and stamina. I prefer Harry Fry's American who could be top class and I don't think Fry would be throwing him into this race so early in his career with no prep unless he was pretty confident. Have taken some 7/1 ew antepost and will have another look on the day.

Depending on the price on the day and if he shows up I will also think about an ew on old sick note Coneygree. A good gallop from the front on soft ground is just his thing and if anywhere near his best he has an ew shout of making all, even with top weight, and he was aimed at this two years ago so connections clearly think it's a race he can do well in.

GL all at Newbury. wink.gif

Last edited by certainty (2017-11-28 22:18:27)

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#3 2017-11-29 13:21:13

broadway
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Join Date: 2013-10-10
Posts: 1466

Re: Hennessy Gold Cup / Ladbroke


Good to see the above posts from Greg47 and certainty .......thank you.....


The Hennessey winner is more often than not 10/1 or under but in the last 10years it has been won by 25/1 and 20/1 shots and looking for a price I have backed the second season 6 year old Label Des Obeaux £20 ew 25/1. Mr King was quoted in the Sporting Life on October 11 saying he was delighted with his win at Ayr and that they would train him working back from the Ladbroke Trophy. So this has been the early season target. He was optimistic that LDO would fit the criteria for the race. Not a lot wrong with its prep race in a Listed race behind Might Bite. Interesting also that he said Cheltenham would not figure in its future as it had finished distressed after all three runs at the course so presumably a flat track fits the bill?

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#4 2017-11-29 14:34:49

little rossi
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Join Date: 2017-03-26
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Re: Hennessy Gold Cup / Ladbroke

broadway wrote:



Good to see the above posts from Greg47 and certainty .......thank you.....


The Hennessey winner is more often than not 10/1 or under but in the last 10years it has been won by 25/1 and 20/1 shots and looking for a price I have backed the second season 6 year old Label Des Obeaux £20 ew 25/1. Mr King was quoted in the Sporting Life on October 11 saying he was delighted with his win at Ayr and that they would train him working back from the Ladbroke Trophy. So this has been the early season target. He was optimistic that LDO would fit the criteria for the race. Not a lot wrongwith its prep race in a Listed race behind Might Bite. Interesting also that he said Cheltenham would not figure in its future as it had finished distressed after all three runs at the course so presumably a flat track fits the bill?




Good luck, have also backed Label DES Obeaux E/Way Sky 25/1, A. King has done well with Elgin in the big Handicap races do far this season, this one is versatile on most grounds, fits stats profile of 6 year old & is near top in weights, only downfall for me is I'm working all Saturday do will miss the race.

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#5 2017-11-29 15:21:46

broadway
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Re: Hennessy Gold Cup / Ladbroke

little rossi .........I would be happy to come home from work and find a 25/1 winner so wish us well.

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#6 2017-11-29 17:39:05

certainty
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Join Date: 2017-01-20
Posts: 1108

Re: Hennessy Gold Cup / Ladbroke

Good luck broadway and rossi.

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#7 2017-11-29 19:17:39

fadinglight
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Join Date: 2013-02-28
Posts: 160

Re: Hennessy Gold Cup / Ladbroke

Thanks again to Broadway, Certainty and Little Rossi for posting their views. 
For what its worth I really like the chances of Singlefarmpayment who has a very solid chase record and ran very well on his come back run.
Good Luck all

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#8 2017-11-29 23:11:43

stu3105
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Join Date: 2013-03-25
Posts: 1619

Re: Hennessy Gold Cup / Ladbroke

Very tricky as always as you would expect, However i believe iv'e found a little belter in the shape of the Colin Tizzard Trained 7 Year Old Royal Vacation, He was a fair Novice last Season without setting the World alight but as we all know regarding Thistlecrack from the Same Yard on how much he improved after his Novice Campaign once being stepped up to 3 miles so not beyond the realms of possibility that this Fella could follow suit, Colin Tizzard has a very decent Record in Handicap Chases at Newbury and he and Jockey Paddy Brennan have struck up a good Partnership over the past few Season too, His Form Figures at Newbury so far are 324 so clearly acts well on this Course, Therefore i beleive he's Massively overpriced at 25/1. Best of  luck Lads

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#9 2017-12-01 16:42:53

broadway
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Join Date: 2013-10-10
Posts: 1466

Re: Hennessy Gold Cup / Ladbroke


Have to have a bit on Double Ross who seems to still have the engine at 11 years and has run his best race every season at this time of the year including a blinder in the race last year at 50/1 after taking on Native River for most of the race. The trainer said recently he will be ridden with more restraint this time and is 2lbs lower. Trainer in usual good form at this time of year.


£10 ew 33/1 (Wm Hill 1/5  7 places) and £5 ew 50/1 (Lads 1/4  4 places)

Last edited by broadway (2017-12-01 17:09:14)

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#10 2017-12-01 17:45:30

frizzy_red_afroman
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Join Date: 2017-03-29
Posts: 382

Re: Hennessy Gold Cup / Ladbroke

Southfield Royale for me,Mullholland has said hes a very frustrating horse to train but hes well handicapped, that 4th to Minello Rocco at Chelt is a race with some strong form, finishing in front of the likes of Vicente and Vieux Lion Rouge and not far behind Native River.  He actually went off fave in that race.  Hes been in my tracker since, he travelled well for a long while last time out before tiring and being pulled up 2 out, hopefully hes ready to run a big race tomorrow after that pipe opener.  Best of luck folks!

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#11 2017-12-01 17:55:29

certainty
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Join Date: 2017-01-20
Posts: 1108

Re: Hennessy Gold Cup / Ladbroke

Have taken some 16/1 ew on Coneygree (six places), I think he either goes close or is pulled up and at the price it's worth taking a chance.

Also Caroles Destrier ew at 33/1 6 places. Record on first start of year is 2,2,1,2,5 (won next time out) and 2nd, in this race last year when he pushed classy winner Native River quite hard at the finish. Will be staying on when others have had enough.

GL all.

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#12 2017-12-01 20:00:59

little rossi
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Join Date: 2017-03-26
Posts: 336

Re: Hennessy Gold Cup / Ladbroke

certainty wrote:


Have taken some 16/1 ew on Coneygree (six places), I think he either goes close or is pulled up and at the price it's worth taking a chance.

Also Caroles Destrier ew at 33/1 6 places. Record on first start of year is 2,2,1,2,5 (won next time out) and 2nd, in this race last year when he pushed classy winner Native River quite hard at the finish. Will be staying on when others have had enough.

GL all.



Good luck certainty, have just taken 14/1 E/Way on Coneygree 7 places 5th odds with William Hill on the stat that the top weight has been placed 7 out of last 11 renewals, let's face it, top of his game injury free he'd run backwards & beat this lot but like you say there are question marks nowadays.

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#13 2017-12-02 16:18:56

certainty
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Join Date: 2017-01-20
Posts: 1108

Re: Hennessy Gold Cup / Ladbroke

Not much joy on the thread with this race ! Thought Total Recall and American were the two to concentrate on but went for wrong un. rolleyes.gif

Looks like something went wrong with American who will hopefully be back soon and Coneygree too, though doubt if we'll ever see him back to how he was when he won the Gold Cup - as with Thistlecrack I suspect it wasn't such a great idea running him in big races as a novice.

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