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#1 2017-08-11 14:12:21

racecaller
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Join Date: 2007-07-05
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KEENELAND PHOENIX STAKES TRENDS 2017

The Keeneland Phoenix Stakes is the first group 1 race for 2yos run in Britain and Ireland this year. It takes place at the Curragh on Sunday 13th August. The race was formerly run at the now-closed Phoenix Park and then at Leopardstown but was moved to its current home following the loss of the straight 6 furlong track at Leopardstown. Aidan O’Brien has dominated the race in recent times, winning 15 of the last 19. 3 of the 4 winners, not trained by O’Brien, were fillies.

 

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

 

Age

Race for 2yos

 

Gender

Fillies (2-1-9) have won 3 of the last 13 runnings of this race from approximately 20% of the total runners. Two had finished in the first 2 in the Coolmore Stud Fillies Sprint at Naas and other was 2nd in Silver Flash on previous start.

 

Breeding

9 of 10 winners sired by a horse with a stamina index of 7.3 to 9.2(Exception last year Caravaggio by Scat Daddy)

8 of 10 winners were sired by a group 1 winner (both exceptions' sires were 2nd in a group 1)

9 of 10 winners were by a sire that contested a group 1 as a 2yo

6 of 10 winners were sired by Danehill, a son of Danehill or out of a mare by Danehill

Recent/Past Form

6 of 10 winners won last time out (2 exceptions placed in Silver Flash, 1 second in Coventry and other 5th in Railway Stakes)                                              

9 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR last time out                                    

7 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 107+ last time out                             

10 of 10 winners had had 2 to 5 previous starts                                              

7 of 10 winners had won a race over 6F to 6.5F at Curragh (2 of 3 exceptions were having their first run at the track)                                            

7 of 10 winners won their maiden at Curragh or Leopardstown                       

9 of 10 winners had won over 6F (exception had won over 7F & having first try at 6F)                                     

Other Races

Railway Stakes winner (Beckford): 11441243 (3-2-8)

Tyros Stakes winner: 1 (1-0-1)

Coventry Stakes winner: 2232331 (1-3-7)

Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden winner: 35 (0-1-2) Tipp 24 Apr 5f

Dubai Duty Free Finest Surprise EBF Maiden winner: 39 (0-1-2) Curr 25 Jun 6f

Marble Hill Stakes winner: 5231 (1-1-4)

 

Trainers

Aidan O’Brien (7-5-25) has trained 15 of the last 19 winners of this race. In past 10 years his first strings have a record of 7-2-10.

John Joseph Murphy (0-1-2) trained the runner-up in 2013.

Ger Lyons (0-0-4) has seen all 3 of her runners in this finish unplaced.

British trained runners (0-3-11) have failed to win the race in the past 10 years despite having accounted for 5 favourites in that time. The last winner to be trained abroad was Princely Heir, in 1997, for Mark Johnston.

Price

No strong trends on prices. There have been 3 shocks in this race in the past 10 years, with Saoirse Abu 25/1 in 2007, La Collina at 33/1 in 2011 & Pedro The Great at 10/1 in 2012. All other winners came from the first 3 in the betting.

Favourites (3-4-10) have won just 3 of the last 10

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

 

- Sired by a group 1 winner with stamina index of 7.7F to 8.5F

- Sire contested a group 1 as a 2yo

- Ideally sired by a son of Danehill (Dansili or Danehill Dancer) or Henrythenavigator

- Had 2 to 5 career starts

- Won last time out (or placed in a group race)

- Posted highest RPR of 107+ last time

- Won maiden at Leopardstown or Curragh

- Won a race over 6F

- Won a group race

- Won at Curragh over 6F to 6½F (or having first course start)

- Won Railway Stakes

- Finished in first 3 in Elusive Pimpernel EBF Maiden and/or Fishery Lane Race

- Filly that finished in first 3 in Silver Flash and/or Coolmore Fillies Sprint

- Trained by Aidan O’Brien 

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