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#1 2017-09-12 21:07:30

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LISTOWEL KERRY NATIONAL TRENDS 2017

The Guinness Kerry National Handicap Chase takes place on Wednesday 13th September and is the highlight of the 7-day Listowel Festival. It is a 3 mile Grade A handicap chase that has been won by some useful chasers in the past, including subsequent Grand National winner, Monty’s Pass, in 2002.

 

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

 

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

5yo: 0-0-1

6yo: 1-1-10

7yo: 4-9-40

8yo: 2-7-46

9yo: 2-7-39

10yo+: 1-6-42

Horses aged 5 to 8: 7-17-97

Horses aged 9 or older: 3-13-80

7 of 10 winners were aged 6 to 8.

The winners in 2012 to 2014 were aged 9+, one was a novice that had yet to win over fences and another had won just one chase.

Your Busy in 2014 became the first winner aged 10 or over since 1996.

 

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)

Horses carrying 11-7 or more: 0-2-11

Horses carrying 11-0 to 11-6: 2-7-26

Horses carrying 10-7 to 10-13: 1-8-47

Horses carrying 10-6 or less: 7-13-94

No strong trends on weights. 7 of 10 winners carried 10-6 or less, but represented over 50% of the runners.

Top Weight: F056560F24P35 (0-3-13)

Horses carrying 10-10 or more: 3-10-58

Horses carrying 10-9 or less: 7-20-120

 

Official Ratings

Horses rated 138 or higher: 2-10-56

Horses rated 126 to 137: 7-18-99

Horses rated 125 or less: 1-2-23

Horses officially rated 126 to 137 have won 7 of the last 10.

 

Recent/Past Form

8 of 10 winners had run in 8 or fewer handicap chases (2 exceptions ran in 12)

9 of 10 winners were second or third season chasers

9 of 10 winners had gained 1 to 4 previous wins over fences (exception yet to win over fences)

10 of 10 winners had run in past 50 days

9 of 10 winners had won over 2M 3F or further

8 of 10 winners had won a chase worth 10K+ (1 exception placed in a 51K chase)

9 of 10 winners had contested a graded chase

6 of 10 winners had previously won or placed at the Listowel Festival (1 exception had never run at Listowel before and another had gained their one chase win at Listowel)

9 of 10 winners had run over hurdles on one of their last 2 starts

 

Other Races

Galway Plate winner: 342F (0-3-4)

MSL Cork Mercedes Benz Handicap Chase winner: 525 (0-1-3)

3 of 10 winners ran in Guinness Blazers Handicap Chase, finishing 161

3 of 10 winners ran in Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown, finishing 00P

2 of 10 winners ran in previous year's Kerry National, finishing 11

2 of 10 winners ran in 2M 6F Beginners Chase at previous year's Festival, finishing 72

2 of 10 winners ran in Ultima Business Solutions H'cap Chase, finishing 03

2 of 10 winners ran in the previous year's Munster National, finishing 45

2 of 10 winners ran in Topham Chase, finishing F0

6 of 10 winners ran in a chase at that year's Cheltenham Festival, finishing 440443

6 of 10 winners had run at that year's Galway Festival

 

Trainers

C Byrnes (1-2-3)

Gordon Elliott (1-1-10)

Mouse Morris (1-1-6)

Noel Meade (0-2-5)

W P Mullins (0-3-20) But has won the race twice in the past 12 years

Racing Style

5 of 10 winners tracked leader(s)

3 of 10 winners were settled in mid-division

2 of 10 winners were settle towards rear

 

Price

The 6 winners between 2005 & 2010 were priced between 4/1 and 14/1, however the next 4 winners went off at 25/1, 16/1, 20/1 & 33/1.

Favourites (1-4-11) gained their first win in the race for over 10 years in 2009.

Summary:

Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

- Aged 6 to 8

- Officially rated 126 to 137

- Ran over hurdles on 1 of last 2 starts

- Run in 8 or fewer handicap chases

- Second or third season chaser

- Gained 1 to 4 previous chase wins

- Won over 2M 3F+ (ideally won over 2M 6F+)

- Won a chase worth 10K+

- Has contested a graded chase

- Previously won or placed in a race at the Listowel Festival

- Finished in first 4 in a chase at 2017 Cheltenham Festival

- Finished first 5 in 2017 Galway Plate, Blazers Handicap Chase and/or 2016 Munster National

- Ran at Galway Festival this year

- Trained by Gordon Elliott, Charles Byrnes or Mouse Morris

- Ridden by Barry Geraghty or Ruby Walsh

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