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#1 2017-05-18 13:58:52

racecaller
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Join Date: 2007-07-05
Posts: 8231

LOCKINGE STAKES TRENDS 2017

The Al Shaqab Lockinge Stakes is the big race on Saturday 14th May, a group 1 run over a mile at Newbury. The previous season’s QEII, Greenham, Moulin and Sussex Stakes have proven good guides to this in recent years.

 

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

 

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

4yo: 8-15-63

5yo: 2-2-20

6yo: 0-1-9

7yo+: 0-0-8

Last 10 winners were aged 4 or 5.

2 of last 3 winners aged 5 were previous group 1 winners, other had finished 2nd in a group 1’s on last 4 starts.

 

Gender

Fillies/mares (1-1-7) have gained 3 wins and 1 second from just 10 runners since 2004. The last 3 female winners had all won a group 1 over a mile the previous year. 2 of the 3 were trained by Michael Stoute.

 

Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners had had 8 to 14 career starts (exceptions had 17 starts)

9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 114+ in one or both of last 2 starts

10 of 10 winners had won over a mile

7 of 10 winners had won a Group 1 (3 exceptions had finished 2nd in a Group 1 or 2)

9 of 10 winners had finished 1st or 2nd a group 1

6 of 10 winners were having their first run of the season (3 of 4 exceptions ran in Sandown Bet365 Mile)

9 of 10 winners were having their first run in the race

6 of 10 winners had won at Newbury (3 exceptions were having their first course start and 1 other was 2nd in Greenham on one previous run here)

10 of 10 winners were officially rated 113 or higher

 

Other Races

Record of first 2 from previous year's Greenham Stakes: 84142111 (4-1-8)

Highest placed finisher from previous Sussex Stakes: 511116 (4-0-6)

Highest placed finisher from previous QEII: 40510111 (4-0-8)

St James Palace Stakes winner (Galileo Gold): 11 (2-0-2)

Previous season's 2000 Guineas winner (Galileo Gold): 11 (2-0-2)

Jersey Stakes winner (Ribchester): 53029 (0-2-5)

Lennox Stakes winner (Dutch Connection): 345 (0-1-3)

Criterion Stakes winner (Breton Rock): 30 (0-0-2)

Celebration Mile winner (Lightning Spear): 937 (0-0-3)

Park Stakes winner (Breton Rock): 5704 (0-0-4)

5 of 10 winners (5 of last 7) ran in previous season's Sussex Stakes, finishing 21127

4 of 10 winners (4 of last 5) ran in previous season's QEII Stakes, finishing 1122

3 of 10 winners (3 of last 4) ran in Prix du Moulin, finishing 223

3 of 10 winners ran in the Bet365 Mile last time, finishing 314

2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Eclipse Stakes, finishing 28

5 of 8 winners aged 4 (last 5) ran in previous season's Greenham Stakes, finishing 21128

4 of 8 winners aged 4 ran in previous season's St James Palace, finishing 6112

3 of 8 winners aged 4 ran in previous season's 2000 Guineas, finishing 311

3 of 8 winners aged 4 ran in previous season's Irish 2000 Guineas, finishing 214

2 of 8 winners aged 4 ran in previous season's French 2000 Guineas, finishing 20

2 of 8 winners aged 4 ran in previous season's Prix Jacques Le Marois, finishing 27

Last 2 female winner ran in previous season's Sun Chariot, finishing 15

 

Trainers

Aidan O’Brien (0-2-9) saddled Hawk Wing to win it in 2003 but has only gained 2 places from 9 runners in past 10 years.

Charles Hills (0-0-3) has seen his 3 runners all finish unplaced.

 

Price

10 of 10 winners were priced 9/1 or below & came from the first 4 in the betting.

Not a race to be looking for a big outsider with the last 10 winners going off at single figure odds.

Favourites (6-0-11) have won 6 of the last 10, giving a level stakes profit of 3.05.

 

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

- Aged 4 (or a multiple group 1 winner aged 5)

- Fillies & mares that ran well in previous year’s Sun Chariot do well

- Won over a mile

- Won a group 1 or 2

- Finished in first 2 in a group 1

- Having first run of 2017 or finished in first 3 in Bet365 Mile last time

- Course winner or having first run at Newbury

- Finished in first 2 in 2016 QEII, Sussex Stakes and/or Greenham Stakes

- Finished in first 3 in 2016 St James Palace, Prix Du Moulin and/or English, Irish or French 2000 Guineas

- From the first 4 in the betting (favourite does well) 

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#2 2017-05-19 13:50:19

broadway
Forum Pro
Join Date: 2013-10-10
Posts: 1215

Re: LOCKINGE STAKES TRENDS 2017

posted Aclaim £7.50 ew 12/1 earlier this week and fingers crossed he will still be declared for Saturday. I haven't seen any reason to look elsewhere up to now.

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#3 2017-05-19 15:52:31

certainty
Forum Pro
Join Date: 2017-01-20
Posts: 373

Re: LOCKINGE STAKES TRENDS 2017

Good luck with yours broadway. Depending on the odds tomorrow I'll probably go with a win on Galileo Gold. Nothing between him and Ribchester on ratings and what they've achieved just that GG had the better first half of last season and Ribchester the better of the later season. Reports are positive about GG being back to form, Dettori has a good record in this race and no problems with the softer ground. Anything over 7/2 will do me in what looks like a two horse race.

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#4 2017-05-19 22:52:06

little rossi
Forum Novice
Join Date: 2017-03-26
Posts: 39

Re: LOCKINGE STAKES TRENDS 2017

Shame the going will be soft or gluey conditions that they'll find difficult to get through, don't think we will see a true winner of this race as if it was good going for instance, will still be an interesting spectacle wonder how many non runners they'll be by the off ?

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#5 2017-05-20 17:55:41

certainty
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Join Date: 2017-01-20
Posts: 373

Re: LOCKINGE STAKES TRENDS 2017

Galileo Gold obviously not the horse he was, shame, and Ribchester class apart.

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