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#1 2014-07-02 14:39:41

racecaller
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Join Date: 2007-07-05
Posts: 6759

OLD NEWTON CUP TRENDS 2014

The Bet365 Old Newton Cup is a 1M 4F class 2 handicap which takes place at Haydock on Saturday 5th July. The Duke OF Edinburgh Handicap at Royal Ascot has proved a key trial, with 4 of the last 8 winners coming from that race. Luca Cumani has been the trainer to follow in the race, winning it 3 times in last 10 years.

 

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

 

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

3yo: 0-0-2

4yo: 8-9-70

5yo: 1-7-34

6yo: 0-3-20

7yo+: 1-4-24

4yos have won 8 of the last 10 from approximately 46.7% of total runners.

 

Weights

Horses carrying 9-7 or more: 1-3-22

Horses carrying 9-0 to 9-6: 2-8-38

Horses carrying 8-7 to 8-13: 6-6-56

Horses carrying 8-6 or less: 1-6-34

9 of 10 winners carried between 8-6 and 9-3

Top weight: 902000530905 (0-2-12)

 

Official Ratings

Horses rated 100 or higher: 1-6-34

Horses rated 90 to 99: 8-12-90

Horses rated 89 or less: 1-5-26

8 of 10 winners were officially rated 90 to 97

 

Recent/Past Form

5 of 10 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out

9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 93+ last time out

9 of 10 winners had had 6 to 16 career starts

9 of 10 winners (last 9) had had at least 2 previous starts that year

10 of 10 winners had run in 12 or fewer handicaps in GB & Ire

10 of 10 winners had won 3 or fewer handicaps

5 of 10 winners had won at Haydock (other 5 were having first course start)

10 of 10 winners had won over 1M 2F to 1M 4F

8 of 10 winners had won over 1M 4F+

8 of 10 winners had won on flat at no higher than class 3

9 of 10 winners had won at a left handed track

 

Other Races

starspreads.com Live Horse Racing Markets Handicap winner (Magic Hurricane): 71 (1-0-2)

John Sunley Memorial Levy Board Handicap winner (De Rigeur): 4 (0-1-1)

4 of 10 winners ran in the Duke Of Edinburgh last time, finishing 7265

3 of 10 winners ran in a handicap at the Dante meeting, finishing 906

 

Trainers

Luca Cumani (3-3-9) has gained 3 winners & 3 places from 9 runners since 2004.

Mark Johnston (1-2-19) had a very poor record in this race, prior to saddling the 1st & 3rd last year, having seen just 1 of his 14 runners in the previous 10 years make the frame.

Hughie Morrison (0-1-1) saddled the runner-up in 2003 & 2012.

David Elsworth (0-1-1) & Amanda Perrett (0-1-3) have aslo both saddled 1 placed finisher.

 

Draw

Horses drawn top 5: 5-9-50

Horses drawn middle stalls: 3-3-50

Horses drawn bottom 5 stalls: 2-11-50

No very strong trends around the draw, though those drawn high have had a slight edge, and been responsible for 3 of last 4 winners.

 

Racing Style

6 of 10 winners led or raced with leaders

4 of 10 winners raced in midfield

This has not been a race where you want to concede too much ground, so horses that are kept closer to the pace are preferred.

 

Price

9 of 10 winners were priced between 7/1 and 16/1

No major trend on the prices, though there has been no winner priced over 16/1 since 2004.

Favourites (2-4-14) have won the race twice in the last 10 years and giving a level stakes loss of 2.25.

 

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

Aged 4

Carrying 8-8 to 9-3

Officially rated 89 to 97

Run in 12 or fewer handicaps (winning no more than 3)

Posted an RPR of 93 or higher last time out

Had at least 2 previous starts in 2014

Course winner (or having first start at Haydock)

Won over 1M 2F to 1M 4F (ideally won over 1M 4F+)

Won at no higher than class 3 level

Ran in Duke Of Edinburgh and/or a handicap at Dante meeting

Trained by Luca Cumani

Tends to race prominently

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#2 2014-07-02 15:22:10

wolfofcurragh
Forum Expert
Join Date: 2014-06-30
Posts: 117

Re: OLD NEWTON CUP TRENDS 2014

Great Stats! Thanks. Just had a quick glance at the race and If following those trends you're left with Havana Cooler 9-2, Salutation 10-1, Magic Hurricane 7-1, Mighty Yar 10-1, Stomachion 10-1. But iv only had a 2 minute look.

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#3 2014-07-03 16:04:22

fadinglight
Forum Novice
Join Date: 2013-02-28
Posts: 31

Re: OLD NEWTON CUP TRENDS 2014

I am looking at Havana Cooler, Dashing Star or Magic Hurricane.

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#4 2014-07-03 17:14:35

stu3105
Forum Pro
Join Date: 2013-03-25
Posts: 1052

Re: OLD NEWTON CUP TRENDS 2014

This Years Renewal does not tend to look as competitive as it normally does and has done in previous Years,Though i may be proven Wrong,However on all known Trends i have this down to 3 Horses to fight this out and they are Magic Hurricane/De Rigeur/and Stomachion!! These 3 appear to fit all Trends the Best of the others also appear to have more improvement in them and all have the required criteria to be a Winner of this Handicap.                                                                                                                                              2 of my Contenders have already Won at Haydock before and the other [ Stomachion will be having his First Course Start all of which are recomended Trends, The also prefer to Race more prominently rather than held up at the back of the field in which this Race ideally suits such types, 2 of my Selections are both 4 Yr olds in which they have managed to have Won 8 of the last 10 Runnings and my other Selection De Rigeur is now a 6 Yr old who have only managed just the 1 Win in this but he is a Course Winner and did Win last time out too,both of which are 2 positives on the Trends also.                                                          2 of the Selections are Drawn High [Magic Hurricane -15/ De Rigeur -19 and the other Drawn Low[ Stomachion -4] High Draws are  preferred with 5 Wins and 9 Places as opposed to those Drawn at the Lower end with just the 2 Wins and 11 Places, However if you give Stomachion a Big chance i would not be too put off as he does tick so many of the right Boxes and as much as i'd have preferred a Higher Draw for him there have still been 2 Winners from the bottom 5 Stalls so all is not lost, However my 1st preference in terms of the Winner has to go to the Progressive improving 4 Year Old Course Winner Magic Hurricane who looks to have been handed an ideal Draw in Stall 15!!                                                                                                                                                                               MY PREDICTION ON THE 2014 OLD NEWTON CUP [FIRST 3]                                   1ST PLACE MAGIC HURRICANE- 2ND PLACE DE RIGEUR- 3RD PLACE STOMACHION!!                                                                                                                                             GOOD LUCK EVERYONE!!0

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