The Bet365 Old Newton Cup is a 1M 4F class 2 handicap which takes place at Haydock on Saturday 5th July. The Duke OF Edinburgh Handicap at Royal Ascot has proved a key trial, with 4 of the last 8 winners coming from that race. Luca Cumani has been the trainer to follow in the race, winning it 3 times in last 10 years.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
4yos have won 8 of the last 10 from approximately 46.7% of total runners.
Horses carrying 9-7 or more: 1-3-22
Horses carrying 9-0 to 9-6: 2-8-38
Horses carrying 8-7 to 8-13: 6-6-56
Horses carrying 8-6 or less: 1-6-34
9 of 10 winners carried between 8-6 and 9-3
Top weight: 902000530905 (0-2-12)
Horses rated 100 or higher: 1-6-34
Horses rated 90 to 99: 8-12-90
Horses rated 89 or less: 1-5-26
8 of 10 winners were officially rated 90 to 97
5 of 10 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 93+ last time out
9 of 10 winners had had 6 to 16 career starts
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had had at least 2 previous starts that year
10 of 10 winners had run in 12 or fewer handicaps in GB & Ire
10 of 10 winners had won 3 or fewer handicaps
5 of 10 winners had won at Haydock (other 5 were having first course start)
10 of 10 winners had won over 1M 2F to 1M 4F
8 of 10 winners had won over 1M 4F+
8 of 10 winners had won on flat at no higher than class 3
9 of 10 winners had won at a left handed track
starspreads.com Live Horse Racing Markets Handicap winner (Magic Hurricane): 71 (1-0-2)
John Sunley Memorial Levy Board Handicap winner (De Rigeur): 4 (0-1-1)
4 of 10 winners ran in the Duke Of Edinburgh last time, finishing 7265
3 of 10 winners ran in a handicap at the Dante meeting, finishing 906
Luca Cumani (3-3-9) has gained 3 winners & 3 places from 9 runners since 2004.
Mark Johnston (1-2-19) had a very poor record in this race, prior to saddling the 1st & 3rd last year, having seen just 1 of his 14 runners in the previous 10 years make the frame.
Hughie Morrison (0-1-1) saddled the runner-up in 2003 & 2012.
David Elsworth (0-1-1) & Amanda Perrett (0-1-3) have aslo both saddled 1 placed finisher.
Horses drawn top 5: 5-9-50
Horses drawn middle stalls: 3-3-50
Horses drawn bottom 5 stalls: 2-11-50
No very strong trends around the draw, though those drawn high have had a slight edge, and been responsible for 3 of last 4 winners.
6 of 10 winners led or raced with leaders
4 of 10 winners raced in midfield
This has not been a race where you want to concede too much ground, so horses that are kept closer to the pace are preferred.
9 of 10 winners were priced between 7/1 and 16/1
No major trend on the prices, though there has been no winner priced over 16/1 since 2004.
Favourites (2-4-14) have won the race twice in the last 10 years and giving a level stakes loss of 2.25.
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 4
- Carrying 8-8 to 9-3
- Officially rated 89 to 97
- Run in 12 or fewer handicaps (winning no more than 3)
- Posted an RPR of 93 or higher last time out
- Had at least 2 previous starts in 2014
- Course winner (or having first start at Haydock)
- Won over 1M 2F to 1M 4F (ideally won over 1M 4F+)
- Won at no higher than class 3 level
- Ran in Duke Of Edinburgh and/or a handicap at Dante meeting
- Trained by Luca Cumani
- Tends to race prominently